What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) leads by 2 pts · 6 candidates at 5%+
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)#1Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%
Dilution of Iran's Uranium#2Dilution of Iran's Uranium12%▼ 1- 5% Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)#35% Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)12%
- Resolves
- Jan 14, 2027
- Volume
- $1.7M
- 24h
- $2.2K
- Liquidity
- $276.4K
- Candidates
- 7
2 venues · 8 marketsWho’s winning
Top 5, each at its busiest venue- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium12%
- 5% Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)12%
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)11%
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium8%
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Signals
1 signal- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)24h4¢ apart across venues
Every candidate, every venue
2 venues
Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.
Where venues disagree
Yes price- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)4¢buy
- Polymarket US
- Polymarket (global)
- Consensus
Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.
Smart money
Biggest tradesLoading trades…
In the news
How each venue settles it
Polymarket (global)
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that commits Iran to surrender any quantity of enriched uranium has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must explicitly commit Iran to the transfer of a portion or all of its enriched uranium stoc…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
Rules
- Category
- Politics
- Resolves
- Thu, January 14, 2027
Compared across 2 venues