What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? — 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

8% chance

Yes8%

Buy Yes8¢fee unknown

No92%

Buy No93¢fee unknown

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $218.3K
24h: $67
Liquidity: $38.1K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes8%—8¢8¢

8¢fee unknown

No93%—93¢93¢

93¢fee unknown

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 8¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

Polymarket USat 8¢: Fees unavailable

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The moratorium must be for a period of at least one year. A commitment to end enrichment p…

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Polymarket US

What Will Be in a US-Iran Deal in 2026?

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About this market

Category: Politics
Event: What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026