Last updated: March 2026

    Glossary

    Trading Terms Explained

    Simple, jargon-free definitions for every term used on the platform.

    24h Volume

    Total dollar amount traded in the last 24 hours across all platforms.

    Accuracy

    Percentage of predictions a user got correct out of all their resolved predictions.

    Active Whales

    Number of whale-level traders who made at least one trade in the past 24 hours.

    Arbitrage

    Buying on one platform and selling on another to profit from price differences — regardless of the event outcome.

    Arbitrage grade

    Risk is a 0–100 score from our feed (lower is better). We mix liquidity, time to settlement, gross edge, and how much fees eat the edge, then map that to A–D.

    At Risk

    The total amount of money you currently have in open positions that could be lost.

    Brier Score

    A statistical measure of prediction accuracy (0 = perfect, 1 = worst). Lower is better.

    Data Coverage

    How many hours per day our system actively tracks prices across all platforms.

    Est. fees per pair

    Estimated trading fees charged by both platforms across the two legs (YES and NO) of a single matched pair.

    Est. ROI

    Estimated Return on Investment after accounting for fees and spread. This is your projected percentage profit.

    Estimated ROI

    How Estimated ROI is calculated

    • Cost: YES ask + NO ask (totalCostPerPair)
    • Gross edge: $1 payout − cost
    • Fees: Platform-specific estimates (Kalshi / Polymarket / default fee %) on each leg
    • Net edge: Gross − fees
    • Estimated ROI: (Net ÷ Cost) × 100%

    Not included: Price movement after this snapshot, order-book depth, slippage, failed fills, or cross-venue timing. recommendedTradeUsd is a sizing suggestion based on liquidity, not used in the ROI %. Refresh data may lag live markets.

    Events Tracked

    Total number of unique prediction market events we're monitoring across all platforms.

    Gross payout per pair

    The guaranteed $1 payout you collect when a matched pair settles — one side always resolves to $1 and the other to $0.

    Gross profit per pair

    Gross profit per pair

    • Profit on each matched pair before trading fees.
    • Formula: $1 gross payout − total cost per pair

    Gross Spread

    The raw price difference between platforms before any fees are deducted.

    Implied Probability

    The market's estimated chance of an event happening, derived from the trading price (e.g., 65¢ = 65% chance).

    Kalshi

    A US-regulated prediction market exchange approved by the CFTC.

    Liquidity

    How easy it is to buy or sell shares without affecting the price. Higher liquidity = easier trading.

    Match confidence

    Match confidence is 0–1 when we have enough data; if it’s blank, we haven’t scored it yet. It blends embedding and title similarity across venues, uses the weakest matching pair, then combines event-level and market-level signals.

    Mega Whale

    An elite trader making very large bets ($10K+). These traders often have deep market insight.

    Net Flow

    The balance of whale money flowing into YES vs NO positions. A high YES % means whales are bullish.

    Net profit per pair

    Net profit per pair

    • Your actual profit per matched pair after fees.
    • Formula: gross profit per pair − estimated fees per pair

    Example: $1.00 payout − $0.96 cost = $0.04 gross; minus $0.01 fees = $0.03 net per pair.

    Net Spread

    The spread remaining after subtracting trading fees from both platforms. This is your actual profit potential.

    Polymarket

    A CFTC-regulated prediction market (via QCX LLC/Polymarket US) built on blockchain technology. Available to US residents for sports markets.

    PredictIt

    A research-based prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington.

    Realized P&L

    Profit or loss from positions you've already closed. This is actual money gained or lost.

    Risk Grade

    Risk is a 0–100 score from our feed (lower is better). We mix liquidity, time to settlement, gross edge, and how much fees eat the edge, then map that to A–D.

    ROI

    Return on Investment — the percentage profit you'd earn relative to the amount you put in.

    Spread

    The price gap between platforms for the same event. A bigger spread may signal an arbitrage opportunity.

    Streak

    Number of correct predictions in a row. Longer streaks indicate consistent skill.

    Total cost per pair

    Total cost per pair

    • The amount you pay to buy one matched pair: one YES share + one NO share.
    • Because exactly one side settles at $1, this is what you risk to collect that $1.
    • Formula: YES ask + NO ask

    Unrealized P&L

    Profit or loss on positions you still hold, based on current market prices. Not locked in until you sell.

    Volume

    Total amount of money traded over a period. Higher volume usually means more market interest.

    Whale

    A trader who makes large bets (typically $1,000+). Their moves can signal where 'smart money' is going.

    Whale Activity

    Significant trades from high-volume traders detected on this market.

    Whale Volume

    Total dollar volume from whale-level traders only, excluding smaller trades.