How sports event contracts work on Kalshi, legal status, and how they differ from traditional sports betting.
Platforms
14+
States Contesting
13
Contract Types
NBA, NFL, MLB
Read Time
10 min
Over $34 million in sports prediction markets trade every day across NBA, World Cup, golf, and more. Unlike sportsbooks, you can sell your position anytime — locking in profit before the game even ends.
🏀
NBA
~$17M/day (est., as of Mar. 2026)
⚽
World Cup
~$6.6M/day (est., as of Mar. 2026)
🏌️
Golf
~$3.3M/day (est., as of Mar. 2026)
🏈
NFL
~$4.2M/day (est., as of Mar. 2026)
Off-season
⚾
MLB
~$1.8M/day (est., as of Mar. 2026)
🎯
Other
~$1.1M/day (est., as of Mar. 2026)
Off-season
Volume estimates based on Kalshi and Polymarket public data. Active seasons shown in amber. Off-season markets may still have futures trading.
World Cup guide
Compare World Cup prediction-market coverage, app fit, fee checks, and resolution risk before treating a displayed market price like sportsbook odds.
Source-backed soccer context: Serie A USA named Polymarket its official and exclusive U.S. prediction-market partner, with Genius Sports data powering Serie A markets. Treat that as mainstreaming context, not proof of World Cup liquidity, prices, fees, or access.
The US sports prediction market landscape is split across three major exchange ecosystems. Here's who powers what.
| Platform | Exchange | Fee |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Own DCM+DCO | ≤1.75¢/contract (formula-based) |
| Robinhood | Kalshi-powered | Variable commission up to $0.01/contract (lower near contract extremes near $0.01 or $0.99), plus exchange fee (Rothera, Kalshi, or ForecastEx depending on contract). Gold subscribers receive up to 50% commission discount. Effective June 1, 2026. |
| Coinbase | Kalshi-powered | Kalshi rates |
| Webull | Kalshi-powered | $0 commission on sports; exchange fees apply. Total ~$0.02/contract |
| PrizePicks | Kalshi-powered | Varies |
| FanDuel Predicts | CME Group | 2% of payout |
| DraftKings | CME Group | $0.01/contract platform fee (+ CME exchange fees) |
| Fanatics Markets | Crypto.com CDNA | Varies |
| Underdog Predict | Crypto.com CDNA | Varies |
| OG Predictions | Crypto.com CDNA | Varies |
| Sleeper Markets | Kalshi-powered | ~$0.02/contract |
| Polymarket US | Own (QCX LLC) | 0.75% peak taker fee for sports (probability-based; near-zero for heavy favorites) |
| Novig | Sweepstakes (DCM pending) | No trading fees |
| ProphetX | Own DCM+DCO | 2% on net gains (straight); 0% parlays |
As of June 2026. Availability and fees subject to change. Check each platform for current terms.
Fee quick guide: Kalshi's fee varies by odds (max 1.75¢ at 50/50, near-zero for longshots). Robinhood charges Variable, max $0.01/contract + exchange fee plus exchange fee (probability-weighted formula as of June 2026). Coinbase applies Kalshi's formula-based fee plus a markup (not flat). Webull fees vary. DraftKings charges ~$0.01/contract platform fee (+ CME exchange fees) via CME. FanDuel takes 2% of your potential payout. Polymarket US charges a probability-based taker fee (sports: up to 0.75% at 50¢ at 50/50, near-zero for heavy favorites). CDNA-powered apps (Fanatics, Underdog, OG) vary by partner.
If you've used DraftKings Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook, prediction markets will feel familiar but work differently. Instead of fixed odds set by a house, you trade contracts on an exchange against other users. There is no bookmaker taking the other side — every buyer is matched with a seller.
Concrete Example
If the Celtics are trading at 22¢ on Kalshi, the market gives them a 22% chance of winning the NBA title. On a sportsbook, the equivalent would be roughly +355 moneyline. But here's the difference: if the Celtics win their first playoff series and the price moves to 35¢, you can sell for a 59% profit immediately — no need to wait for the Finals.
| Feature | Prediction Markets | Sportsbooks |
|---|---|---|
| Pricing | Market-set (0–100¢) | House-set odds |
| Exit early? | Yes, sell anytime | Cash out (limited) |
| Vig / Juice | None (market spread) | 4–10% built into odds |
| Max payout | $1 per contract | Varies (limits common) |
| Regulation | CFTC (federal) | State gaming commissions |
| Short selling? | Yes (buy “No”) | No |
The bottom line: prediction markets turn sports opinions into tradeable financial positions. You're not placing a bet with a house — you're trading a contract on an exchange. This means better price transparency, no vig, and the ability to manage your risk actively.
Kalshi
US LegalLargest US-regulated exchange. Broadest sports coverage.
Polymarket US
US LegalSports-only in the US (availability may vary by state). Deepest global liquidity. CFTC DCM via QCX LLC.
DraftKings Predictions
US LegalCME Group-powered. 38 states, sports in states without legal betting. Acquired Railbird Exchange (Oct 2025) for own exchange infrastructure.
FanDuel Predicts
US LegalCME Group-powered. Targets states without legal sports betting. Standalone mobile app (separate from FanDuel Sportsbook).
Robinhood
US LegalKalshi-powered. Familiar brokerage app. Maryland residents do not have access to event contracts. Sports contracts are additionally restricted in NJ and NV — see robinhood.com/support for current availability.
Coinbase
US LegalKalshi-powered. Available in most states (Nevada excluded). Acquired The Clearing Company (Dec 2025, DCO application pending).
Webull
US LegalKalshi-powered. Most states (sports subject to same restrictions as Kalshi). Also offers S&P, BTC, ETH Hourlies.
PrizePicks
US LegalKalshi-powered. 35 states + DC for sports (Team Picks). DFS operator adding prediction markets.
Fanatics Markets
US LegalCrypto.com CDNA-powered. 24 states (incl. CA, TX, FL, GA). Phase 2 adds crypto, stocks, culture in 2026.
Underdog
US LegalCrypto.com CDNA-powered. 33 states + DC. NFA approved as FCM January 2026.
OG Predictions
US LegalCrypto.com CDNA standalone prediction market app. Broad category coverage.
Sleeper Markets
US LegalKalshi-powered. Nationwide via Kalshi (Nevada blocked under preliminary injunction); launched Feb 6, 2026. Integrated into Sleeper fantasy app — 10M+ existing users. NFA-approved FCM.
Novig
US LegalSweepstakes-model sports prediction market (CFTC DCM application pending). No-vig pricing, no trading fees.
ProphetX
US LegalSports-only peer-to-peer exchange (founded 2018). CFTC DCM + DCO (dual approval, June 2026); launched nationwide June 18, 2026 in 49 states (all except Nevada). Set your own price (0% maker fee) and no-fee parlays via its RFQ parlay mechanism.
Three Infrastructure Ecosystems Power US Sports Prediction Markets
Kalshi ecosystem: Kalshi (CFTC DCM, most states) powers Robinhood, Coinbase, and PrizePicks, among others. Broadest category coverage.
CME Group ecosystem: CME Group powers DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts. Both target states without legal sports betting.
Crypto.com CDNA ecosystem: Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CFTC DCM) powers Fanatics Markets (24 states). Underdog Predict and OG Predictions also operate on CDNA infrastructure; visit each platform for current state availability.
Independent: Polymarket US (sports-only), ProphetX (sports-only, own CFTC DCM+DCO, 49 states), Novig (sports-only, sweepstakes model, DCM pending), Sporttrade (sports-only, CFTC DCM application pending; state-licensed operations ended June 2026).
Spotlight: Sporttrade
Sporttrade is a sports-only exchange that ran under state gaming licenses (5 states) before winding down those state-licensed operations in June 2026. Its CFTC DCM + DCO application (Sporttrade DCM LLC) was posted to the CFTC public docket on January 27, 2026 and remains under review. Unlike Kalshi (CFTC DCM, broad federal reach with Nevada restrictions, covering politics/economics/weather too) or DraftKings Predictions (CME-powered event contracts), Sporttrade would only return as a full federal exchange if and when the CFTC approves its application.
Sporttrade's state-licensed operations ended June 2026; a federal CFTC relaunch is pending application approval. Check Sporttrade for current status.
Choose a Platform
For US sports fans, Kalshi and Robinhood are the easiest starting points — both accept USD bank deposits and require no crypto. ProphetX (sports-only, 49 states) is a strong pick for sharp traders who want to set their own prices and trade parlays. DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and Underdog also offer prediction markets if you already have accounts.
Read the Contract Terms
Every contract has specific settlement rules. “Celtics Win NBA Championship” settles based on the final result. Read the fine print — especially for conditional markets like “Will X player win MVP?” where the criteria may surprise you.
Start Small, Learn the Mechanics
Buy a few contracts at $1–$5 to learn how the order book works. Practice selling before settlement to understand how exiting a position works. Most sports bettors underestimate the value of the “sell anytime” feature.
Compare Prices Across Platforms
Different platforms often have different prices for the same outcome. If Kalshi has the Celtics at 22¢ and Polymarket has them at 24¢, that 2¢ spread tells you something about market disagreement — and may represent an opportunity.
Every platform where you can trade sports prediction markets.
CFTC DCM (via QCX LLC)
CFTC FCM + Rothera DCM (live)
CFTC IB via CME DCM
CDNA DCM + DCO
CFTC FCM + DCM/DCO
Related Resources
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