Geopolitics

    Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil by...?

    December 31, 2027 leads by 12 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. December 31, 2027#130%
    2. Before Jul 1, 2027#218%
    3. Before Apr 1, 2027#312%
    #4 Before Feb 1, 20277%#5 December 31, 20265%+2 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2027
    Volume
    $68.6K
    24h
    $576
    Liquidity
    $46.6K
    Candidates
    7
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 7 markets

    Who’s winning

    • December 31, 202730%
    • Before Jul 1, 202718%
    • Before Apr 1, 202712%
    • Before Feb 1, 20277%
    • December 31, 20265%
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    Signals

    2 signals
    1. Before Feb 1, 202724h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Jul 1, 202724h
      8¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    December 31, 2027$647 vol30%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US31¢no fee
    Before Jul 1, 2027$1.2K vol · 8¢ apart18%▼ 1kalshi16¢17¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$4.7K vol12%—kalshi12¢13¢ after fees
    Before Feb 1, 2027$150 vol7%▼ 4kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    December 31, 2026$12.1K vol5%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢no fee
    Before Jan 1, 2027$6.3K vol4%—kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$43.6K vol<1%—kalshi1¢2¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Jul 1, 20278¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If, after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, Flávio Bolsonaro visits Brazil by physically travelling to and being present within its geographic boundaries, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positiv…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, December 31, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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