International

    How many Israeli elections before government formed?

    1 leads by 42 pts · 2 candidates at 5%+

    1. 1#166%
    2. 2#224%
    3. 3#35%
    #4 At least 53%#5 42%+1 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2027
    Volume
    $309.3K
    24h
    $551
    Liquidity
    $82.8K
    Candidates
    6
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 7 markets

    Who’s winning

    • 166%
    • 224%
    • 35%
    • At least 53%
    • 42%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. At least 524h
      ▼ 95¢ in 24h
    2. 424h
      ▼ 47¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. 124h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    4. 124h
      7¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    5. 324h
      7¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    1$152.7K vol · 7¢ apart66%▼ 4kalshi73¢75¢ after fees
    2$89.5K vol24%▼ 1kalshi25¢27¢ after fees
    3$34.4K vol · 7¢ apart5%▼ 1kalshi13¢14¢ after fees
    At least 5$58 vol3%▼ 95kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    4$15.8K vol2%▼ 47kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    5+$12.0K vol<1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢no fee

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the number of Israeli Knesset elections held is exactly 1 from the next Knesset election until a new government is formed or October 27, 2030 at 11:59:59 PM ET, whichever occurs first, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, December 31, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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