Claude 6 released by...?
December 31, 2027 leads by 4 pts · 4 outcomes at 5%+
- December 31, 2027#1December 31, 202789%
- By September 30, 2027#2By September 30, 202785%▼ 1
- June 30, 2027#3June 30, 202757%▼ 10
- Resolves
- Jan 14, 2028
- Volume
- $50.4K
- 24h
- $635
- Liquidity
- $33.6K
- Outcomes
- 5
2 venues · 6 marketsWho’s winning
Top 5, each at its busiest venue- December 31, 202789%
- By September 30, 202785%
- June 30, 202757%
- March 31, 202736%
- December 31, 20264%
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Signals
4 signals- June 30, 202724h▼ 10¢ in 24h
- December 31, 202624h6¢ apart across venues
- June 30, 202724h5¢ apart across venues
- December 31, 202724h4¢ apart across venues
Every outcome, every venue
2 venuesYes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.
In the news
How each venue settles it
Polymarket (global)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of An…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 6 model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Claude" and be designated as version 6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. Any of Anthropic's general-purpose model families qualifies, including Fable, Opus, Sonnet, Haiku, or a successor general-purpose family, provided the version designation of 6 or higher appears in the name or model identifier. For example, Claude Fable 6, Claude Opus 6, Claude Sonnet 6, or a later version such as Claude Fable 6.1 or Claude 7 would qualify, while models that retain a version designation below 6, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Opus 5, and models that do not carry an explicit version number of 6 or higher in their name or identifier, regardless of how they are described or positioned, will not qualify. A Mythos-branded release available only through Anthropic's verification or trusted-access programs, and task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
- Category
- Culture
- Resolves
- Fri, January 14, 2028
Compared across 2 venues