Scotus & Courts

    Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

    Before Jan 1, 2028 leads by 4 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jan 1, 2028#121%
    2. Before Oct 1, 2027#217%
    3. Before Jul 1, 2027#316%
    #4 Before Apr 1, 202712%#5 Before Jan 1, 20275%+1 more
    Resolves
    Jun 30, 2027
    Volume
    $2.1M
    24h
    $1.2K
    Liquidity
    $86.8K
    Candidates
    6
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jan 1, 202821%
    • Before Oct 1, 202717%
    • Before Jul 1, 202716%
    • Before Apr 1, 202712%
    • Before Jan 1, 20275%
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    Signals

    2 signals
    1. Before Jan 1, 202824h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Jul 1, 202724h
      4¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jan 1, 2028$2.6K vol21%▼ 3kalshi22¢24¢ after fees
    Before Oct 1, 2027$2.3K vol17%—kalshi17¢18¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2027$268.7K vol · 4¢ apart16%▼ 1kalshi16¢17¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$4.8K vol12%▼ 1kalshi13¢14¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$190.6K vol5%—kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    December 31$1.6M vol4%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Jul 1, 20274¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito w…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Wed, June 30, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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