Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? — June 30, 2027

16% chance · down 2 pts today

Yes16%▼ 2

Buy Yes16¢17¢ after fees

No84%▲ 2

Buy No85¢86¢ after fees

Resolves: Jun 30, 2027
Volume: $268.7K
24h: $22
Liquidity: $21.4K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

1 signal

Yes24h
4¢ apart across venues

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes16%▼ 216¢20¢

16¢17¢ after fees

No85%▲ 285¢81¢

85¢86¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 16¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Polymarketat 20¢: exit costs ~0.64¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito w…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Resolves: Wed, June 30, 2027