Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? — Before Jan 1, 2028

21% chance

Yes21%

Buy Yes22¢24¢ after fees

No79%

Buy No80¢82¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes21%—22¢

22¢24¢ after fees

No79%—80¢

80¢82¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 22¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.