Trump

    Next Cabinet member to leave?

    Howard Lutnick leads by 21 pts · 8 candidates at 5%+

    1. Howard Lutnick#144%
    2. Pete Hegseth#223%
    3. Marco Rubio#317%
    #4 Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%#5 Linda McMahon7%+21 more
    Resolves
    Jan 20, 2029
    Volume
    $623.4K
    24h
    $137.9K
    Liquidity
    $81.0K
    Candidates
    26
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshipredictit3 venues · 54 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Howard Lutnick44%
    • Pete Hegseth23%
    • Marco Rubio17%
    • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.13%
    • Linda McMahon7%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Howard Lutnick24h
      ▲ 33¢ in 24hpredictitPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    2. Pete Hegseth24h
      ▼ 18¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshipredictit
    3. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.24h
      ▼ 6¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictitkalshi
    4. Howard Lutnick24h
      40¢ apart across venuespredictitkalshi
    5. Pete Hegseth24h
      35¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictit

    Every candidate, every venue

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Howard Lutnick$6.8K vol · 40¢ apart44%▲ 33predictit8¢17¢ after fees
    Pete Hegseth$19.8K vol · 35¢ apart23%▼ 18kalshi33¢35¢ after fees
    Marco Rubio$10.3K vol · 10¢ apart17%▲ 5kalshi23¢25¢ after fees
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.$3.0K vol · 18¢ apart13%▼ 6kalshi23¢25¢ after fees
    Linda McMahon$560 vol · 10¢ apart7%▼ 2kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    John Ratcliffe$292 vol · 6¢ apart6%▼ 2kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Brooke Rollins$763 vol · 8¢ apart6%▼ 4kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    J.D. Vance$261 vol5%▲ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US10¢10¢ after fees
    Doug Burgum$285 vol4%▼ 3kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Jamieson Greer$216 vol4%▼ 1kalshi6¢7¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Howard Lutnick40¢buy predictit
    • Pete Hegseth35¢buy kalshi
    • Robert F. Kennedy Jr.18¢buy kalshi
    • Marco Rubio10¢buy kalshi
    • Linda McMahon10¢buy kalshi
    • Brooke Rollins8¢buy kalshi
    • Lee Zeldin8¢buy kalshi
    • John Ratcliffe6¢buy kalshi
    • PredictIt
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignatio…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If Howard Lutnick is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    predictitPredictIt

    Who will be the next Cabinet member to leave office?

    Full rules on PredictIt ↗

    About this market

    Who will be the next Cabinet member to leave office?

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, January 20, 2029
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshipredictitCompared across 3 venues

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