Next Cabinet member to leave?

    Next Cabinet member to leave? — R. F. Kennedy Jr.

    13% chance · down 6 pts today

    Yes13%▼ 6kalshiYes23¢25¢ after fees
    No87%▲ 6predictitNo92¢93¢ after fees
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2028
    Volume
    $3.0K
    24h
    $1.1K
    Liquidity
    $3.4K
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictitListed on 3 venues

    Chance over time

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    Signals

    2 signals
    1. Yes24h
      ▼ 6¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictitkalshi
    2. Yes24h
      18¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every venue’s price

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Yes13%▼ 6kalshi23¢25¢ after fees
    No87%▲ 6predictit92¢93¢ after fees

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

    Before you trade

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarketat 5¢: exit costs ~0.2¢/contract
    KalshiKalshiat 23¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢
    PredictItPredictItat 17¢: Fees unavailable
    Full calculator

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being removed from office) after Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignatio…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    predictitPredictIt

    Who will be the next Cabinet member to leave office?

    Full rules on PredictIt ↗

    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Event
    Next Cabinet member to leave?
    Resolves
    Sun, December 31, 2028
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictitCompared across 3 venues

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