US Election

    First Dem POTUS announcement?

    Andy Beshear leads by 2 pts · 11 candidates at 5%+

    1. Andy Beshear#122%
    2. Pete Buttigieg#220%
    3. Andy Beshear#318%
    #4 Rahm Emanuel18%#5 Ro Khanna17%+38 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2028
    Volume
    $166.5K
    24h
    $794
    Liquidity
    $24.5K
    Candidates
    43
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictit3 venues · 43 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Andy Beshear22%
    • Pete Buttigieg20%
    • Andy Beshear18%
    • Rahm Emanuel18%
    • Ro Khanna17%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Cory Booker24h
      ▼ 6¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Ro Khanna24h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. Andy Beshear24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    4. Gavin Newsom24h
      14¢ apart across venueskalshipredictit
    5. Pete Buttigieg24h
      10¢ apart across venuespredictitPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Andy Beshear$17.9K vol22%▼ 4kalshi27¢29¢ after fees
    Pete Buttigieg$18.2K vol · 10¢ apart20%▼ 1kalshi21¢23¢ after fees
    Andy Beshear$6.4K vol18%▼ 1kalshi21¢23¢ after fees
    Rahm Emanuel$5.0K vol · 9¢ apart18%▼ 2kalshi26¢28¢ after fees
    Ro Khanna$4.4K vol17%▼ 5kalshi20¢22¢ after fees
    Gavin Newsom$24.4K vol · 14¢ apart10%▲ 3kalshi12¢13¢ after fees
    Pete Buttigieg$7.7K vol10%▼ 1kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    Kamala Harris$6.4K vol10%—kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    Josh Shapiro$9.6K vol · 5¢ apart7%▼ 2kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Wes Moore$5.0K vol6%—kalshi8¢9¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • PredictIt
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavi…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    predictitPredictIt

    Which of these Democratic candidates will announce a 2028 POTUS run first?

    Full rules on PredictIt ↗

    About this market

    Which of these Democratic candidates will announce a 2028 POTUS run first?

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, December 31, 2028
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USpredictitCompared across 3 venues

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