Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

    Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? Live odds across 7 markets: 1 at 77¢. Resolves Dec 31, 2026. Not financial advice.

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026

    • 5: Yes 0¢ (polymarket)
    • 1: Yes 77¢ (polymarket)
    • 2: Yes 25¢ (polymarket)
    • 3: Yes 2¢ (polymarket)
    • 4: Yes 0¢ (polymarket)
    • 6+: Yes 6¢ (cryptocom)
    • 6 or lower: Yes 0¢ (polymarket)
    TRADING OPEN
    8s

    Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

    This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026
    Total Volume

    $3.4M

    +$3.8K (24h)

    Active Markets

    7

    Across 2 platforms

    Frontrunner

    76¢

    1

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +6¢

    6+

    Arb Opportunities

    3

    Best gross: 6.3¢ / $1 pair

    All Markets

    7 markets · Showing 7
    #
    176¢76¢76¢76¢
    $611.5K+$131 24h
    -2¢
    224¢24¢24¢24¢
    $409.7K+$28 24h
    +2¢
    3
    $0
    +6¢
    4
    $530.1K
    +3¢
    6¢🔥
    5
    $510.2K+$4 24h
    -1¢
    6¢🔥
    6
    $543.4K
    7
    5📈 Trending
    $838.6K+$3.6K 24h
    6¢🔥

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    11
    76%
    76¢-2¢
    22
    24%
    24¢+2¢
    34
    +3¢
    43
    -1¢
    55

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Dec 31, 2026

    ~108 days remaining
    Category
    Culture
    Markets
    7
    Platforms
    2
    Total Volume
    $3.4M
    Arb Opportunities
    3

    Whale Activity

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