Weather

    Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

    1 leads by 89 pts

    1. 1#194%
    2. 2#25%
    3. 3#3<1%
    #4 6 or lower<1%#5 5<1%+1 more
    Resolves
    Mar 1, 2027
    Volume
    $3.9M
    24h
    $3.1K
    Liquidity
    $242.3K
    Outcomes
    6
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the UScryptocom2 venues · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • 194%
    • 25%
    • 3<1%
    • 6 or lower<1%
    • 5<1%
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    Signals

    2 signals
    1. 224h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. 124h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the UScryptocom

    Every outcome, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    1$778.5K vol94%▼ 3cryptocom98¢98¢ after fees
    2$495.9K vol5%▼ 5Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢6¢ after fees
    3$550.9K vol<1%——
    6 or lower$607.0K vol<1%——
    5$909.3K vol<1%——
    4$565.5K vol<1%——

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Crypto.com
    • Consensus

    Same outcome, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will res…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    cryptocomCrypto.com

    2026 Rank Among Hottest Years on Record

    Full rules on Crypto.com ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Mon, March 1, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the UScryptocomCompared across 2 venues

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