Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? — 3

<1% chance

Yes<1%

Buy Yes1¢1¢ after fees

No>99%

Buy No99¢99¢ after fees

Resolves: Mar 1, 2027
Volume: $550.9K
24h: $425
Liquidity: $53.7K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes<1%—1¢

1¢1¢ after fees

No>99%—99¢

99¢99¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Fee Impact at These Prices

Crypto.comat 1¢: exit costs ~0.07¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will res…

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2026 Rank Among Hottest Years on Record

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