Geopolitics

    Next Secretary-General of the UN?

    Rebeca Grynspan leads by 3 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. Rebeca Grynspan#138%
    2. Rebeca Grynspan#235%
    3. Lana Nusseibeh#317%
    #4 Rafael Grossi13%#5 David Choquehuanca8%+21 more
    Resolves
    Jul 14, 2027
    Volume
    $492.9K
    24h
    $655
    Liquidity
    $111.9K
    Candidates
    26
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi2 venues · 27 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Rebeca Grynspan38%
    • Rebeca Grynspan35%
    • Lana Nusseibeh17%
    • Rafael Grossi13%
    • David Choquehuanca8%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Kristalina Georgieva24h
      ▼ 47¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Colombe Cahen-Salvador24h
      ▼ 47¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. Achim Steiner24h
      ▼ 46¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    4. Rebeca Grynspan24h
      7¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Rebeca Grynspan$43.9K vol · 7¢ apart38%▲ 6kalshi41¢43¢ after fees
    Rebeca Grynspan$40.3K vol35%▲ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US37¢38¢ after fees
    Lana Nusseibeh$19.6K vol17%▼ 6kalshi20¢22¢ after fees
    Rafael Grossi$99.6K vol13%▼ 2kalshi13¢14¢ after fees
    David Choquehuanca$2.6K vol8%▼ 6Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US14¢15¢ after fees
    María Fernanda Espinosa$12.4K vol5%▼ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    Viktor Orbán$15.7K vol5%▼ 2kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Jacinda Ardern$2.0K vol3%▼ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    Achim Steiner$2.6K vol3%▼ 46Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    Kristalina Georgieva$2.0K vol3%▼ 47Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Rebeca Grynspan7¢buy kalshi
    • Lana Nusseibeh2¢buy kalshi
    • Rafael Grossi2¢buy kalshi
    • Viktor Orbán2¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not co…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If Rebeca Grynspan is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    Who will be selected the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Wed, July 14, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshiCompared across 2 venues

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