JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?

    Before Oct 1, 2027 leads by 17 pts · 7 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Oct 1, 2027#169%
    2. Before Jun 1, 2027#252%
    3. Before Jul 1, 2027#351%
    Resolves
    Oct 1, 2027
    Volume
    $21.9K
    24h
    $682
    Liquidity
    $48.7K
    Candidates
    8
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US3 venues · 8 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Oct 1, 202769%
    • Before Jun 1, 202752%
    • Before Jul 1, 202751%
    • Before May 1, 202747%
    • Before Apr 1, 202726%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Before Mar 1, 202724h
      ▼ 13¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Feb 1, 202724h
      ▼ 9¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Before May 1, 202724h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. Before Jul 1, 202724h
      18¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USkalshi
    5. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      14¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Oct 1, 2027$162 vol69%▼ 3kalshi73¢75¢ after fees
    Before Jun 1, 2027$409 vol52%▼ 3kalshi56¢58¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2027$8.0K vol · 18¢ apart51%▼ 1Polymarket US41¢fee unknown
    Before May 1, 2027$201 vol47%▼ 5kalshi51¢53¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$8.7K vol · 14¢ apart26%▼ 5Polymarket US14¢fee unknown
    Before Mar 1, 2027$206 vol14%▼ 13kalshi15¢16¢ after fees
    Before Feb 1, 2027$52 vol8%▼ 9kalshi12¢13¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$4.2K vol3%▼ 3kalshi5¢6¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket US
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D. Vance officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by J.D. Vance will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomin…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    JD Vance Announces a Presidential Run?

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D. Vance officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by J.D. Vance will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by J.D. Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, October 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket USCompared across 3 venues

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