US Election

    Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028

    J.D. Vance leads by 17 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. J.D. Vance#131%
    2. Ron DeSantis#214%
    3. Marco Rubio#313%
    #4 Vivek Ramaswamy4%#5 Ted Cruz4%+18 more
    Resolves
    Nov 21, 2028
    Volume
    $1.5K
    24h
    $31
    Liquidity
    $30.8K
    Candidates
    23
    Polymarket USkalshi2 venues · 23 markets

    Who’s winning

    • J.D. Vance31%
    • Ron DeSantis14%
    • Marco Rubio13%
    • Vivek Ramaswamy4%
    • Ted Cruz4%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Marco Rubio24h
      11¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USkalshi
    2. J.D. Vance24h
      8¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USkalshi
    3. Donald J. Trump24h
      4¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    J.D. Vance$509 vol · 8¢ apart31%▼ 2Polymarket US28¢fee unknown
    Ron DeSantis$143 vol14%▲ 1Polymarket US13¢fee unknown
    Marco Rubio$256 vol · 11¢ apart13%▼ 1Polymarket US8¢fee unknown
    Vivek Ramaswamy$20 vol4%▲ 1Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Ted Cruz$168 vol4%▼ 1Polymarket US3¢fee unknown
    Donald J. Trump$20 vol · 4¢ apart4%▼ 2kalshi2¢3¢ after fees
    Tucker Carlson$79 vol3%▼ 1Polymarket US3¢fee unknown
    Donald J. Trump Jr.$20 vol3%—Polymarket US3¢fee unknown
    Thomas Massie$21 vol3%▼ 1Polymarket US3¢fee unknown
    Tom Cotton$20 vol3%—Polymarket US3¢fee unknown

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket US
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    2028 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If J.D. Vance wins the 2028 Iowa Republican presidential caucus, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    Iowa is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the Iowa Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the Iowa public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2028 Iowa primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Tue, November 21, 2028
    Polymarket USkalshiCompared across 2 venues

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