Geopolitics

    Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

    Before Jan 1, 2029 leads by 23 pts · 7 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jan 1, 2029#174%
    2. Before Jul 1, 2028#251%
    3. Before Jan 1, 2028#341%
    #4 December 31, 202738%#5 Before Jul 1, 202724%+4 more
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2029
    Volume
    $2.8M
    24h
    $6.4K
    Liquidity
    $270.1K
    Candidates
    9
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 11 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jan 1, 202974%
    • Before Jul 1, 202851%
    • Before Jan 1, 202841%
    • December 31, 202738%
    • Before Jul 1, 202724%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Before Jul 1, 202824h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Jan 1, 202724h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Before Jan 1, 202824h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      9¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    5. Before Jul 1, 202724h
      7¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jan 1, 2029$620 vol74%▼ 1kalshi75¢77¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2028$504 vol51%▼ 4kalshi55¢57¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2028$2.1K vol41%▼ 3kalshi43¢45¢ after fees
    December 31, 2027$15.6K vol38%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US38¢39¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2027$12.9K vol · 7¢ apart24%▼ 2kalshi29¢31¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$59.2K vol · 9¢ apart9%▼ 1kalshi15¢16¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$6.2K vol6%▼ 4kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    December 31, 2026$2.5M vol3%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US3¢3¢ after fees
    November 30, 2026$53.8K vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Apr 1, 20279¢buy kalshi
    • Before Jul 1, 20277¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution sour…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Mon, January 1, 2029
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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