Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? — Before Jan 1, 2029

74% chance

Yes74%

Buy Yes75¢77¢ after fees

No26%

Buy No28¢30¢ after fees

Resolves: Jan 1, 2029
Volume: $620
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes74%—75¢

75¢77¢ after fees

No27%—28¢

28¢30¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 75¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Resolves: Mon, January 1, 2029