Source-badged tracker · Updated 2026-05-15

    Prediction Markets News Tracker

    A durable way to follow what changed in prediction markets without confusing topic-feed noise, affiliate rankings, and official source records.

    Source policy

    PredictionMarkets.US treats official platform documents, government records, court filings, regulator materials, and primary source releases as factual authority. Media/topic feeds can trigger review, but they are discovery signals until a primary source supports the claim.

    How to read this tracker

    Date is when the tracked source changed or became relevant.

    Lane separates legal, source, trust, and market-move work.

    Source tells you whether the item is official, primary, docs, or media-signal only.

    Internal link routes the update to the PM.US explainer that owns the user question.

    Legal

    Legal / regulatory

    Rules, bills, agency actions, court filings, and official restrictions that change who can trade or how venues operate.
    Source

    Platform / data-source

    Official docs, status pages, API surfaces, data-source changes, and platform architecture updates.
    Trust

    Trust / market structure

    Developments that affect transparency, information advantage, enforcement, resolution, or user trust.
    Moves

    Market moves

    Source-backed market-move explainers. This lane stays quiet when PM.US does not have owned or primary data support.

    Source, freshness, and limits

    Last checked 2026-05-11

    PredictionMarkets.US treats official platform documents, government records, court filings, regulator materials, and primary source releases as factual authority. Media/topic feeds can trigger review, but they are discovery signals until a primary source supports the claim.

    Source

    Official and primary records are authoritative. Media and topic feeds are discovery signals until a primary source confirms the fact.

    Freshness

    Dates show when a tracked source changed or was checked. They are not live odds timestamps and should not be cited as real-time market prices.

    Platform scope

    A platform or data-source row is not an endorsement, ranking, promo placement, or guarantee that PredictionMarkets.US covers every market on that venue.

    Availability caveat

    Platform access can vary by jurisdiction, account status, and product. Use the linked explainer or official source for the user-facing rule.

    Liquidity caveat

    Volume or liquidity mentions need owned or primary data support. Thin markets can make displayed prices less reliable as evidence.

    Resolution source

    Market odds depend on market rules and resolution criteria. Cite the rule source before using a price as evidence.

    Related explainers
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    Prediction-market analysis tools

    A research workflow for source checks, calibration, and market context.

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    Platform architecture map

    How platform, data-source, custody, and rule surfaces differ.

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    Freshness & source governance

    Last updated: 2026-05-15

    Total: 9
    Verified: 3
    Updated: 1
    Watching: 5
    Needs primary source: 0

    Source hierarchy

    Official sources and primary documents are authoritative. Platform docs verify operational context. Media signals stay in discovery until a primary record confirms them.

    2026-05-13
    Platform / data-source
    Official sourceVerified

    CFTC staff issued a no-action position on swap data reporting and recordkeeping for fully collateralized event-contract transactions.

    This provides infrastructure and reporting relief for DCMs, DCOs, and participants under the letter terms; it does NOT constitute consumer approval, odds validation, platform endorsement, state-law preemption, or proof a specific market is safe, liquid, or live.

    2026-05-01
    Legal / regulatory
    Primary documentWatching
    Limitless Markets US

    CFTC lists Limitless Markets US, LLC as a pending DCM filing dated May 1, 2026.

    Pending filing status is not approval or live PM.US data coverage. It is a platform-watch item for future source verification.

    2026-04-30
    Legal / regulatory
    Primary documentVerified

    GovInfo published the S.Res.708 status record for the Senate prediction-market trading restriction.

    The official status record is the source of truth for the resolution's action history, not social screenshots or recap posts.

    2026-04-30
    Legal / regulatory
    Official sourceUpdated

    Congress.gov hosts the public bill page for S.Res.708, including official actions and text links.

    Users need the chamber-specific rule scope before assuming all public officials, family members, or platforms are covered.

    2026-04-30
    Legal / regulatory
    Official sourceWatching

    The Gillibrand-McCormick release describes a federal prediction-market bill focused on insider-information and consumer-protection concerns.

    A bill proposal is not the same thing as an adopted Senate rule, so the tracker routes users to the bill tracker for row-level status.

    2026-05-04
    Platform / data-source
    Platform docsWatching
    Polymarket

    Polymarket documentation remains the starting source for mechanics, support, wallet, and platform-state explanations.

    Troubleshooting pages should separate official docs/status checks from forum panic, screenshots, or third-party recovery claims.

    2026-05-04
    Platform / data-source
    Platform docsWatching
    Polymarket

    The official status page is the safer place to check platform incidents before treating an account-display issue as permanent.

    The tracker links status checks without claiming any incident is currently active unless the status page is re-verified at ship time.

    2026-05-04
    Platform / data-source
    Platform docsVerified
    Hyperliquid

    Official Hyperliquid docs verify HIP-4 outcome markets as fully collateralized fixed-range contracts useful for prediction markets and bounded options-like instruments; the first market is a recurring binary BTC outcome, staged rollout continues, and multi-outcome markets are not part of the initial mainnet release.

    The official docs verify the outcome-market primitive, but market breadth, live volume, user adoption, market share, and competitive impact still require primary or owned data before PM.US renders them as facts.

    2026-05-04
    Market moves
    Primary documentWatching

    No standalone market-move item is rendered without owned data or primary-source support.

    This prevents the tracker from inventing live prices or amplifying unsourced move claims just because a topic feed is noisy.

    Discovery signal: PM.US owned data watch lane
    PM.US explainer

    Freshness and source rules

    Official and primary sources beat media/topic feeds.

    Media feeds can trigger review, but they do not prove facts by themselves.

    There is no referral ranking or promo-code bias here.

    Live prices stay out unless an owned data source powers them.

    What belongs here

    Rules and enforcement actions.

    Platform docs or status changes.

    Major market-structure developments.

    Source-backed market-move explainers.

    What does not

    Unsourced Reddit or X rumors.

    Affiliate rankings and promo codes.

    Unsupported live-price claims.

    Private user screenshots.

    Related PM.US explainers