Where Kalshi, Polymarket, and CDNA signal flows into TradFi — exclusive wholesale vs. open multi-partner models, with a primary source on every row.
Relationships Documented
11
Primary-Sourced
5
Scope, methodology, and sourcing policy for institutional-data-distribution claims.
A neutral, source-linked map of how prediction-market data reaches institutional and retail-research customers. It does not rank platforms, does not recommend data products, and does not render live pricing. Every relationship links to a primary press release, SEC filing, or exchange announcement.
Methodology: Tracks documented channels through which prediction-market data reaches institutional and retail-research customers. Excludes sponsorship/marketing deals (tracked separately on /prediction-market-partnerships). Each row cites a primary press release, exchange announcement, or SEC filing. Rows without a verified primary source render as 'Primary-source verification pending' and are excluded from matrix totals.
Recorded press framing that informs the page without changing the underlying source rows.
Bloomberg has moved from a co-leader frame to a lead-reversal frame on prediction-market US volume. Piece: “Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback” (Annie Massa, Emily Nicolle, Isis Almeida, Katherine Doherty, 2026-04-22).
What this means for the page below: This page maps documented institutional-data-distribution relationships; it does not rank platforms on product quality. The Bloomberg piece frames Polymarket's ICE-exclusive wholesale path as having compounded product delays into a volume-lead reversal. No row on this page changes based on this observation; we flag the shift so readers reading the exclusive-wholesale-vs-open-multi-partner contrast understand the fresh narrative framing.
Read the Bloomberg pieceCorroborated by: Unchained (2026-04-23), Associated Press (2026-04-23)
Kalshi stays exclusive-wholesale while Polymarket expands through an open multi-partner model.
Open / multi-partner
Derived from the 8 documented relationships in rows[]; no exclusivity language found in any Kalshi press release as of 2026-04-21.
Exclusive wholesale (institutional-data layer only)
ICE press release (2026-03-27) uses 'exclusive' framing for the market-data distribution arrangement; Polymarket has separately shipped direct web/app access to retail.
CDNA (Crypto.com / Derivatives North America) is an infrastructure wholesaler to white-label partners and has not yet announced a direct institutional-data-distribution channel as of 2026-04-22.
All documented platform-channel relationships, filterable by platform, channel, and verification status.
Announced: 2026-03-27 · Up to $2,000,000,000 reported
Institutional market-data distribution; redistribution via ICE Consolidated Feed and terminal/vendor channels.
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: 2026-02
Named SKU in the ICE Consolidated Feed product line.
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: 2026-03-26
Institutional research and risk-management input.
Announced: 2026-04-21
Co-branded institutional-grade research product; reports on individual markets, platform trends, and data-driven strategies. Reported as the first Kalshi data feed into a research provider with paying subscribers.
Announced: date pending
Prediction-market terminal integration (Bloomberg-class venue, institutional-grade).
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: 2026-04-16 · Not disclosed (no commercial commitment).
On-record CEO statement that Schwab is 'taking a hard look' at prediction markets; explicit category-fence — would stay away from sports/pop-culture; focus on finance-event/long-term-wealth integration. No commercial commitment or product launch announced.
Rick Wurster (CEO)
Q1 2026 earnings call / public commentary cycle (Apr 16)
Earnings-call references = signal of institutional consideration, not commercial deployment. Row remains a directional indicator until a product or partnership is announced.
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM (Wurster 'hard look' + 'stay away from sports' phrases; Bloomberg paraphrase vs direct-quote distinction must be preserved verbatim).
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: 2026-04-14 · Not disclosed at this venue. Volume corroboration: 3.4B contracts Jan-2026 (Forbes Advisor citing Robinhood public disclosure).
On-record CEO statement positioning Robinhood's prediction-market integration (powered by Kalshi infrastructure) as a long-horizon retail-investing product complement to retirement accounts. Forbes Advisor (Apr 2) corroborates 3.4B prediction-market contracts in January 2026 alone via Robinhood's Kalshi-powered access.
Vlad Tenev (CEO)
CNBC interview (Apr 14, 2026) + public earnings-cycle commentary
Robinhood is a Kalshi-rail brokerage (per US_PLATFORMS.md infrastructure map), not a self-op DCM. Row catalogs the CEO's product-positioning frame; volume-claim corroboration only via Forbes Advisor primary-source citation of Robinhood disclosure.
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM (Tenev retirement-positioning quote — direct-quote vs paraphrase distinction must be preserved).
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: date pending
Public signaling of Polymarket-related activity; awaiting a direct primary-source filing or statement.
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: 2026-03-24
Cleared-derivatives solution with Kalshi; institutional-grade clearing infrastructure.
Announced: 2026-03-24
Institutional OTC access to prediction markets; large-position execution off-book.
Announced: 2026-04-21
Three-leg sports-streamer integration: (1) Jan 20, 2026 Polymarket broadcast data embed + CFTC intent; (2) Apr 13, 2026 ADI Predictstreet FIFA World Cup 2026 multi-event product partnership (GlobeNewswire); (3) Apr 21, 2026 Sports Marketing 1 LLC (DAZN-affiliated UK entity) NFA Introducing Broker membership application. Own-IB filing pending approval; FCM plans from Jan 20 announcement unchanged.
Verbatim: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE_VERBATIM
Last verified: PENDING_PRIMARY_SOURCE
Announced: 2026-02
Strategic investment and partnership to expand institutional access to prediction markets.
Investor relationship ≠ data-distribution channel; rendered as a footer row, not in the main matrix.
Tradeweb Newsroom, 2026-02Definitions for each institutional-distribution channel referenced in the map.
A single distribution partner that holds exclusive rights to redistribute a platform's market data to institutional customers (terminal, vendor, or feed).
An institutional asset manager or research firm that uses a platform's data internally as a research or risk-management input, without redistribution.
A third-party research product that packages a platform's data into published research notes sold on a paid-subscription basis.
A professional financial terminal that surfaces prediction-market prices and signals alongside equities, fixed income, and derivatives.
A productized feed of derived signals (sentiment, probabilities, sector aggregates) sold as a named SKU by a market-data vendor.
Documented instances where a publicly traded TradFi firm cited prediction-market data during an earnings call or shareholder letter.
An FCM or cleared-derivatives solution provider that builds institutional plumbing on top of a platform's DCM.
A market-maker or prime-broker-style channel that lets institutional traders execute large positions off-book with a single counterparty.
Implications of exclusive wholesale versus open multi-partner distribution.
An 'exclusive wholesale' model (Polymarket → ICE) is not better or worse than an 'open multi-partner' model (Kalshi). It is a different product decision about who owns the distribution layer. Bloomberg-terminal desks see Polymarket differently than ProCap-tier retail researchers see Kalshi.
Institutional-data partnerships are not a ranking of platform quality. An open model attracts more resellers; an exclusive model attracts deeper per-customer integration. Both are observable; neither is a verdict.
When a Schwab earnings call mentions prediction-market positioning, or when a hedge-fund research note cites 'Kalshi-derived Fed probabilities,' the pipeline that got the number there is one of the channels on this page. Understanding the channel is how you read the signal.
What we will and will not claim when documenting institutional-data relationships.
Tracked changes to rows, source links, or relationship labels.
Approved domains plus the page-level banned-source policy.
We block 30 competitor / affiliate-farm domains from being cited on this page. If an aggregator packages a primary-source announcement we track, we link the primary source directly.
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