Prediction Market Industry Valuations & Volume (2026)
Live snapshot of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the wider CFTC-regulated event-contract industry.
Last Updated
2026-04-27
Next Audit Due
2026-05-04
Platforms Tracked
5
Projections
3
How This Page Works
Editorial policy, sourcing standards, and why unconfirmed numbers stay clearly labeled.
- Every number on this page is sourced. The source is shown inline.
- This page does not rank platforms by valuation. Valuation is a fundraising outcome, not a product-quality signal. A higher valuation does not mean a better trading platform for users.
- This page does not project the future. Third-party projections we cite (Bernstein, BofA) are labeled as third-party estimates, not PM.US claims.
- This page does not include internal estimates. If a number is not in a primary filing, a press release, or a triangulated wire source (Reuters / Bloomberg / WSJ / CNBC), it does not appear here.
- When a number changes, we update the JSON and show the prior value in an update log, same pattern as our V2 cutover date-correction log.
- We do not cite reddit, wikipedia, medium, crypto-press aggregators (CoinDesk / Benzinga / CoinTelegraph / Decrypt / Bitcoin.com / Bankless / Blockhead / Blockonomi / CoinGenius / Crypto-Economy / CryptoTimes / CoinMarketCap Academy / MoneyCheck), affiliate / promo sites, or any domain on our banned-citations list. We source directly from Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC, company press releases, and regulatory filings.
- "Valuation" on this page means the valuation set by a named fundraising round, not a secondary-market share price, not a self-reported marketing claim, not a rumored number. If a round is in-talks but not closed, the row is labeled "in talks" and a confidence badge is shown.
- This page does NOT imply PM.US has a financial relationship with any platform listed. All outbound links are editorial references, not affiliate routes, and carry rel="noopener".
- When a Tier-1 outlet (Reuters / Bloomberg / WSJ / NYT / FT) publishes a named narrative-frame shift that affects the reader context of this page, we record the shift in narrativeShifts[] and render a neutral Narrative-Context callout. We do not rewrite rows to match the new frame. Rows change only on primary-source evidence.
Narrative Context (added 2026-04-22)
Recorded press framing that informs reading, without changing the sourced rows below.
Bloomberg has moved from a co-leader frame to a lead-reversal frame on prediction-market US volume. Piece: “Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback” (Annie Massa, Emily Nicolle, Isis Almeida, Katherine Doherty, 2026-04-22).
What this means for the page below: This page reports named fundraising-round valuations and cited industry volumes; it does not rank platforms. The Bloomberg piece observes a narrative shift (co-leader framing → lead-reversal framing) that precedes any named-round or published-volume change. No row on this page changes based on this observation; we flag the shift so readers understand the broader narrative context in which our numbers sit.
Read the Bloomberg pieceCorroborated by: Unchained (2026-04-23)
Platform Valuation Snapshot
Primary-sourced valuation rounds, status labels, and supporting notes by platform.
Kalshi
$22B
$1B+
Coatue Management
2026-03-19
$11B (Dec 2025)
Data verification in progress.
Polymarket
~$15B
~$400M (round could total ~$1B)
ICE (prior $600M committed; up to $2B total per ICE release)
2026-04-19
$9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)
Reuters citing The Information first reported the in-talks frame. Bloomberg Apr 20 2026 (Massa/Nicolle) corroborates: Polymarket secured $600M at a $15B valuation in March 2026 and is now seeking an additional $400M, with the company's value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake.' The $9B prior post-money traces to the ICE strategic investment announced Oct 7 2025 (Fortune coverage and ICE press release on file). Treat as in-talks, confidence medium, until a named final-close announcement lands.
Data verification in progress.
PredictIt
n/a
—
—
—
—
PredictIt operates under a non-profit university arrangement and was acquired/transitioned through Aristotle → Underdog structures. Not independently valued via a priced round.
Data verification in progress.
ForecastEx
n/a
—
Interactive Brokers
—
—
ForecastEx is wholly owned by Interactive Brokers. No independent private-round valuation exists.
Data verification in progress.
Sleeper Markets
$500M
not publicly disclosed
not publicly disclosed
2026-02
not publicly disclosed
Sleeper Markets Series B at ~$500M reported in early 2026. If no primary source is attached on review, this row is marked "data verification in progress" or removed rather than left unsourced.
Data verification in progress.
Platform Volume Snapshot
Primary-sourced trading-volume comparisons for the largest platforms tracked here.
2025 full-year volume
~$23.8B
not disclosed
Kalshi 2025 full-year volume is widely reported at ~$23.8B. Without a direct Kalshi-issued or Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ primary source on file, the figure is downgraded to "annualized per Bloomberg Mar '26 coverage" and the precise dollar figure is dropped.
Single-day peak volume
~$1B (Super Bowl 2026)
not disclosed
Sports share of volume
~85–90%
US sports via Polymarket US; non-US primarily politics / macro / news
Fortune Apr 20 2026 reports "over 85%". NYT/The Athletic Mar 9 2026 reported "more than 90%". Range shown pending lock on the most recent primary source.
Industry-Scale Volume (Cross-Platform)
Cross-platform snapshots included for context, with their sourcing limitations clearly stated.
Cross-platform aggregation sources are dashboard services, not platform-issued filings. Figures are rounded and reflect the most-recently-published snapshot.
Third-Party Projections (Not PM.US Claims)
Industry-context estimates from outside sources, kept separate from verified platform facts.
Bank of America
$1.1T sports event-betting TAM
TAM (no dated horizon)
Every row above is a third-party estimate. Projections are included as industry context, not PM.US forecasts.
Investor Roster
Known investors by platform, sourced from public disclosures and round announcements.
kalshi
- Coatue Management (lead, Mar 2026)
- Paradigm (lead, Dec 2025)
- Sequoia
- Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
- ARK Invest
- CapitalG
polymarket
- ICE / Intercontinental Exchange (strategic; $600M Mar 2026, up to $2B total per ICE release)
- Founders Fund
- Vitalik Buterin (angel)
- Additional LPs per in-talks round (not yet disclosed)
sleeper
- Not publicly disclosed
What a User Should NOT Read Into Valuations
Guardrails for interpreting fundraising data without overreaching.
Valuation ≠ safety
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are CFTC-regulated. Both face state-level litigation. Platform safety is governed by regulation, segregation of customer funds, and ongoing court rulings — not by fundraising outcomes.
Valuation ≠ better product
A higher private valuation reflects investor appetite, not product-market fit for any given user. Different platforms serve different users. See our platform comparisons for feature-level differences.
Valuation ≠ permanence
High private valuations have cratered before in crypto and fintech. FTX was valued at $32B the month before it collapsed. Private mark-ups are not durability signals. Treat valuation as one input alongside regulation, product, and trust signals.
Corrections & Update Log
Tracked changes and source-linked corrections to valuation coverage.
page-creation: — → initial publication with Kalshi $22B (closed Mar 2026) + Polymarket ~$15B (in talks)
First entry — page creation triggered by Polymarket $15B Reuters and Bernstein $1T projection coverage converging in the same news cycle.
www.reuters.complatformValuations[Polymarket].priorValuation: not publicly disclosed at this scale → $9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)
Weekly audit cycle (next due 2026-04-27 → advanced to 2026-05-04). Bloomberg Apr 20 (Massa/Nicolle) directly states value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake'. Corroborated by Fortune Oct 7 2025 ICE strategic-investment coverage and ICE press release already on file. Bloomberg Apr 20 added to approvedPrimarySources alongside Reuters Apr 20 already on file. CMC explicitly NOT used (banned source per restraint contract). Polymarket sourceNote rewritten to reflect Bloomberg corroboration of the $600M-at-$15B Mar 2026 round + $400M in-talks add-on. Status field unchanged — held conservative until a named final-close announcement lands.
www.bloomberg.comSources
Approved primary sources, audit cadence, and editorial distance from covered platforms.
Audit cadence: weekly, plus on any named-round announcement. This page refuses 28 banned or non-primary domains; see our accuracy policy for the full list.
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