Live snapshot of Kalshi, Polymarket, and the wider CFTC-regulated event-contract industry.
Last Updated
2026-04-27
Next Audit Due
2026-05-04
Platforms Tracked
5
Projections
3
Editorial policy, sourcing standards, and why unconfirmed numbers stay clearly labeled.
Recorded press framing that informs reading, without changing the sourced rows below.
Bloomberg has moved from a co-leader frame to a lead-reversal frame on prediction-market US volume. Piece: “Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead After Delays, Blowback” (Annie Massa, Emily Nicolle, Isis Almeida, Katherine Doherty, 2026-04-22).
What this means for the page below: This page reports named fundraising-round valuations and cited industry volumes; it does not rank platforms. The Bloomberg piece observes a narrative shift (co-leader framing → lead-reversal framing) that precedes any named-round or published-volume change. No row on this page changes based on this observation; we flag the shift so readers understand the broader narrative context in which our numbers sit.
Read the Bloomberg pieceCorroborated by: Unchained (2026-04-23)
Primary-sourced valuation rounds, status labels, and supporting notes by platform.
$22B
$1B+
Coatue Management
2026-03-19
$11B (Dec 2025)
Data verification in progress.
~$15B
~$400M (round could total ~$1B)
ICE (prior $600M committed; up to $2B total per ICE release)
2026-04-19
$9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)
Reuters citing The Information first reported the in-talks frame. Bloomberg Apr 20 2026 (Massa/Nicolle) corroborates: Polymarket secured $600M at a $15B valuation in March 2026 and is now seeking an additional $400M, with the company's value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake.' The $9B prior post-money traces to the ICE strategic investment announced Oct 7 2025 (Fortune coverage and ICE press release on file). Treat as in-talks, confidence medium, until a named final-close announcement lands.
Data verification in progress.
n/a
—
—
—
—
PredictIt operates under a non-profit university arrangement and was acquired/transitioned through Aristotle → Underdog structures. Not independently valued via a priced round.
Data verification in progress.
n/a
—
Interactive Brokers
—
—
ForecastEx is wholly owned by Interactive Brokers. No independent private-round valuation exists.
Data verification in progress.
$500M
not publicly disclosed
not publicly disclosed
2026-02
not publicly disclosed
Sleeper Markets Series B at ~$500M reported in early 2026. If no primary source is attached on review, this row is marked "data verification in progress" or removed rather than left unsourced.
Data verification in progress.
Primary-sourced trading-volume comparisons for the largest platforms tracked here.
~$23.8B
not disclosed
Kalshi 2025 full-year volume is widely reported at ~$23.8B. Without a direct Kalshi-issued or Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ primary source on file, the figure is downgraded to "annualized per Bloomberg Mar '26 coverage" and the precise dollar figure is dropped.
~$1B (Super Bowl 2026)
not disclosed
~85–90%
US sports via Polymarket US; non-US primarily politics / macro / news
Fortune Apr 20 2026 reports "over 85%". NYT/The Athletic Mar 9 2026 reported "more than 90%". Range shown pending lock on the most recent primary source.
Cross-platform snapshots included for context, with their sourcing limitations clearly stated.
Cross-platform aggregation sources are dashboard services, not platform-issued filings. Figures are rounded and reflect the most-recently-published snapshot.
Industry-context estimates from outside sources, kept separate from verified platform facts.
$1.1T sports event-betting TAM
TAM (no dated horizon)
Every row above is a third-party estimate. Projections are included as industry context, not PM.US forecasts.
Known investors by platform, sourced from public disclosures and round announcements.
Guardrails for interpreting fundraising data without overreaching.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket are CFTC-regulated. Both face state-level litigation. Platform safety is governed by regulation, segregation of customer funds, and ongoing court rulings — not by fundraising outcomes.
A higher private valuation reflects investor appetite, not product-market fit for any given user. Different platforms serve different users. See our platform comparisons for feature-level differences.
High private valuations have cratered before in crypto and fintech. FTX was valued at $32B the month before it collapsed. Private mark-ups are not durability signals. Treat valuation as one input alongside regulation, product, and trust signals.
Tracked changes and source-linked corrections to valuation coverage.
page-creation: — → initial publication with Kalshi $22B (closed Mar 2026) + Polymarket ~$15B (in talks)
First entry — page creation triggered by Polymarket $15B Reuters and Bernstein $1T projection coverage converging in the same news cycle.
www.reuters.complatformValuations[Polymarket].priorValuation: not publicly disclosed at this scale → $9B (Oct 2025, ICE $1B stake / up to $2B commitment)
Weekly audit cycle (next due 2026-04-27 → advanced to 2026-05-04). Bloomberg Apr 20 (Massa/Nicolle) directly states value 'up from $9 billion last year, when Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ... took a $1 billion stake'. Corroborated by Fortune Oct 7 2025 ICE strategic-investment coverage and ICE press release already on file. Bloomberg Apr 20 added to approvedPrimarySources alongside Reuters Apr 20 already on file. CMC explicitly NOT used (banned source per restraint contract). Polymarket sourceNote rewritten to reflect Bloomberg corroboration of the $600M-at-$15B Mar 2026 round + $400M in-talks add-on. Status field unchanged — held conservative until a named final-close announcement lands.
www.bloomberg.comApproved primary sources, audit cadence, and editorial distance from covered platforms.
Audit cadence: weekly, plus on any named-round announcement. This page refuses 28 banned or non-primary domains; see our accuracy policy for the full list.
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