Macro, economic, and fundamental event contracts — not sports, not politics. Last verified: 2026-04-18.
Platforms
5
Categories
10
Updated
Monthly
Focus
Finance
Finance-first event contracts organized by how they settle and where they are listed.
Density is highest on Kalshi (direct exchange + multi-meeting ladder). Webull and Robinhood surface Fed contracts via Kalshi. Polymarket lists the headline contracts but on a shallower ladder. ForecastEx lists Fed contracts on its own DCM.
FOMC rate decision announcement (official Fed release)
Binary: will the Fed cut / hold / hike at the next FOMC meeting?
Kalshi runs month-by-month ladders with multiple strikes. Polymarket lists headline CPI but with thinner ladders. ForecastEx has CPI contracts on its own DCM.
BLS monthly CPI release (official BLS data)
Threshold: will CPI year-over-year exceed X% in [month]?
Kalshi has the densest ladder, including weekly jobless-claims contracts. Polymarket has headline NFP contracts. ForecastEx has unemployment contracts.
BLS monthly Employment Situation release
Threshold: will nonfarm payrolls exceed / fall below X in [month]? Will unemployment rate be above/below X%?
Quarterly cadence. Kalshi lists advance / second / third estimate cycles.
BEA GDP release (official BEA data)
Threshold: will US real GDP annualized growth exceed X% in [quarter]?
Kalshi lists end-of-day and multi-day strikes. Webull runs hourly S&P 500 and NASDAQ contracts (Kalshi-powered). No Polymarket presence in equity-index event contracts.
Official index close (S&P, NASDAQ)
Threshold: will S&P 500 close above/below X on [date]? Hourly variants on Webull.
ForecastEx has dedicated yield contracts. Kalshi lists occasional strike contracts. Polymarket does not currently list this category.
Official US Treasury yield close
Threshold: will the 10-year Treasury yield close above/below X% on [date]?
Polymarket runs dense BTC/ETH price-threshold contracts on its own chain. Kalshi has BTC/ETH contracts. Webull runs hourly BTC/ETH (Kalshi-powered).
Platform-specified index (typically CME BRR for BTC; platform-native index on Polymarket)
Threshold: will BTC / ETH close above/below X on [date]? Hourly variants on Webull.
Commodity-price event contracts are thinner than macro-release contracts on both platforms.
Official futures settlement or platform-specified index
Threshold: will WTI crude close above/below $X on [date]?
Long-horizon contracts. Settlement source is NBER, which means resolution can lag the business-cycle turn by months.
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcement
Binary: will the US enter a recession (NBER-declared) by [quarter / year]?
Kalshi-only category at time of last-verified. See our dedicated Earnings Mentions explainer for contract mechanics and a worked example.
Official earnings-call transcript
Binary: will [word/phrase] be said during [company]'s earnings call?
Regulatory basis, strengths, tradeoffs, and finance-first footprint by platform.
CFTC-regulated DCM + DCO
Deepest macro / BLS / Fed contract ladder on the US landscape. Earnings mentions are Kalshi-only. Multi-strike ladders per release.
Density, strike granularity, regulatory clarity.
Limits / size tiers vary by contract.
QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US (CFTC-licensed)
Strong crypto-price thresholds, headline macro release contracts, deeper GDP and recession ladders. Less strike density on CPI / NFP than Kalshi.
On-chain transparency, crypto-price depth.
Thinner macro strike ladders, no equity-index contracts at this snapshot.
CFTC-regulated DCM + DCO (ForecastEx)
Finance-native interface; macro-release and yield contracts; integrates into TWS workflows.
Integration with broker account, Treasury-yield contracts.
Thinner contract breadth vs Kalshi.
Via Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Hourly contracts on S&P 500, NASDAQ, BTC, ETH plus Fed events — all Kalshi-powered.
Hourly intraday granularity, integration with existing Webull account.
Curated subset of Kalshi catalog, not full breadth.
Via Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)
Fed, CPI, jobs, and major macro headlines surface in Robinhood prediction-market tab. Wrapper interface over Kalshi order book.
Integration with existing Robinhood account.
Wrapper-interface legibility issues users have reported on payout-math surfacing; see our Robinhood PnL explainer.
How the directory is scoped, reviewed, and kept current.
Finance-first prediction markets are event contracts that settle on macro, economic, fundamental, or financial-market outcomes — explicitly excluding sports, politics, entertainment, and pop-culture. Categories are grouped by the underlying settlement source (Fed release, BLS release, market close, platform-native index). Platform coverage reflects what each exchange actively lists as of the lastVerified date, sourced from the platform's own market catalog. Live pricing is intentionally not rendered on this page — follow the platform link to see current contracts.
Last verified: 2026-04-18
Why every row stays linked to primary settlement or platform sources.
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