Ireland’s national gambling regulator is actively enforcing against unlicensed prediction market platforms. Major platforms have already geoblocked Irish residents, and at least one is facing the prospect of High Court proceedings.
Bottom line for Irish residents
The two largest CFTC-regulated prediction markets — Kalshi and Polymarket — are both geoblocked for Irish residents as of July 2026. Using a VPN to bypass those restrictions violates each platform’s terms of service. Unlicensed platforms operating here face High Court blocking orders under the Gambling Regulation Act 2024.
Access status is determined by each platform’s official terms of service. Figures may change; confirm current terms at each platform’s official site.
| Platform | Irish Residents |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | — |
| Polymarket | — |
| PredictIt | — |
Platform access is set by each platform’s own terms, not by PredictionMarkets.US. Verify directly at the platform’s official site before trading.
The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) began issuing licenses for remote betting operators on July 1, 2026, taking over the role from Revenue. From that date, any platform providing remote betting or remote betting intermediary services to Irish consumers without a GRAI license is non-compliant with Irish law.
The regulator classifies prediction market platforms as remote betting intermediaries: “prediction markets that provide betting activities fall within the definition of remote betting intermediary under Irish law.”
GRAI CEO Anne Marie Caulfield confirmed that the regulator had issued warning letters to at least one major prediction market platform and could pursue a High Court blocking order if it did not voluntarily geoblock Irish users. Speaking on RTÉ’s This Week radio programme, she described the unnamed platform as “one of the largest prediction market operators in the world.”
Caulfield noted that GRAI had made approximately 30 total interventions against offshore gambling and prediction market operators, with the vast majority complying voluntarily — some within 35 minutes of contact.
Unlike some European regulators, GRAI has limited direct ISP enforcement authority. Enforcement requires a High Court blocking order. The regulator can seek High Court orders covering both site access and funding.
GRAI is working with Coimisiún na Meán to obtain “trusted flagger status” — a mechanism that would allow suspected non-compliant sites to be removed more efficiently. That process is ongoing.
New licensing regime, July 2026
GRAI’s licensing system for remote betting operators launched July 1. Any platform without a license is immediately non-compliant. The regulator moved quickly to enforce against the highest-traffic platforms first.
Dublin Central by-election scrutiny
In May 2026, Finance Minister Simon Harris raised concerns about unusual trading volumes on Polymarket tied to the Dublin Central by-election. He described the broader space as a "Wild West" of unregulated cryptocurrency betting. There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by any candidate.
Wider European enforcement push
Nine European regulators announced a joint initiative against prediction markets in mid-2026. France blocked Polymarket, Spain issued a temporary block, and Belgium, Germany, Italy, and others have restricted access. Ireland's enforcement is part of a continent-wide pattern.
Gambling Regulation Act 2024 authority
The Gambling Regulation Act 2024 gave GRAI clear statutory authority over remote betting. Prediction markets are classified as remote betting intermediaries under that framework — meaning they need a GRAI license or must geoblock Irish users.
VPN access violates platform terms
Using a VPN or proxy to access a prediction market that has geoblocked your jurisdiction violates that platform’s terms of service. Violations can result in account suspension, rejection of pending withdrawals, or permanent account closure. This applies regardless of whether your local regulator actively monitors VPN use. Consult each platform’s official terms of service for the specific consequences in your account agreement.
Ireland is listed as a restricted country in Kalshi's membership agreement. Irish residents are prohibited from trading event contracts on the platform.
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) in the United States. Its membership agreement governs which jurisdictions can access the platform.
Ireland was added to Polymarket's restricted jurisdictions in its terms of service.
Polymarket operates globally and has restricted access in more than 30 countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, France, the UK, and Poland. Ireland is now among the restricted jurisdictions.
PredictIt is a US-focused platform operating under a CFTC no-action letter. Access is generally limited to US residents. Verify current eligibility directly with PredictIt at their official site.
Ireland’s enforcement is not isolated. Across Europe, prediction markets have faced a wave of regulatory action:
Nine European regulators issued a joint initiative against prediction markets in 2026, citing player protection and market integrity concerns. For the global picture, see our International Regulatory Actions tracker.
International Regulatory Actions
Global tracker of sovereign actions against prediction markets
Brazil: 27-Platform Block
How Brazil’s Anatel banned 27 prediction market platforms
Brazil CMN Resolution 5.298
Brazil’s first foreign-sovereign prediction market ban explained
Kalshi Platform Guide
CFTC-regulated exchange overview, fees, and state availability
Polymarket Platform Guide
How Polymarket works, global restrictions, and access
CFTC NPRM Comment Guide
How to file a comment on the CFTC’s proposed prediction market rules
