International Prediction Market Regulatory Actions
A primary-source-first tracker of sovereign actions — criminal, regulatory, civil, and informational — against, for, or carving out prediction markets outside the United States. New rulings are added as rows; we do not collapse history.
Rows
11
Countries
8
Tiers
5
Blocked domains
30
Tracker methodology
Coverage, verification posture, and how to read the rows
Durable tracker
11 rows
Last verified: 2026-04-27
Verbatim-quote verification in progress
Our policy on this tracker
Every row is backed by a primary source (gov/regulator page, gazette, or court docket). We re-fetch primary sources every session. Where verbatim text is non-English, we render the original with a translation note and hold the passage pending-verification if we have not yet confirmed the exact wording directly.
Neutral voice only. We report what primary sources say — we do not characterize sovereigns' intent.
Never speculate on platform response. If Polymarket or Kalshi issues a governance-layer statement, swap in the verbatim quote with attribution; never paraphrase.
Never recommend VPN, geofence-bypass, offshore-wrapper, or invite-code workarounds of any kind.
Never name individual users, bettors, or alleged victims — even when a non-English outlet publishes handles.
Primary-source only. Banned domains listed in bannedSources[] are never cited; we use primary filings (gov.br, bcb.gov.br, gazette, court docket) or Tier-1 press as substitutes.
Re-fetch every primary source URL every session. French and Brazilian press outlets have silently revised dated copy before — the April 17→19 Polymarket V2 cutover is the documented precedent.
A new regulatory category (non-financial-event derivative) is not a legal opinion. We describe the shape of rules; we do not issue compliance advice.
Rows are additive. We do not collapse history. If a row's status changes, we append an updateLog entry and keep the original scope text.
Tier-1 elite-press structural-frame synthesis (Bloomberg/WSJ/FT/NYT/AP) lands on narrativeShifts[], never on row rewrite. The action-log is immutable; narrative context is a separate layer.
Foreign-sovereign categorical actions enter the tracker as PENDING rows when only secondary press is available. Primary-source verification is non-optional. PENDING rows render with explicit 'verification in progress' state and are excluded from filterable totals.
Multi-jurisdiction 'crackdown' framing is attributed to the originating apex outlet, never adopted in PM.US voice. We describe patterns; we do not characterize sovereign intent.
Action-tier taxonomy
Five tiers, from most-severe (criminal) to most-contextual (academic primary research). The taxonomy is neutral — higher tier numbers are not a ranking of worse or better, only a shape descriptor for the type of action.
Tier 1
Criminal complaint / prosecution
A sovereign or its criminal authority has filed a complaint, indictment, or opened a criminal investigation naming prediction-market activity. The most severe tier; presumption of innocence applies to every named party.
Tier 2
Executive-regulatory categorical ban
A sovereign's executive or monetary authority has issued a rule, decree, or regulation that categorically prohibits a defined class of prediction-market contracts within its territory.
Tier 3
Civil regulatory query / consultation
A civil financial regulator has published periodic queries, a call for evidence, or a consultation that specifically references prediction-market structures — without (yet) issuing a prohibition or license.
Tier 4
Info-only license lane
The platform does not hold a local gaming license in the jurisdiction; its presence is limited to sponsorship, data, or informational surface. Trading is not available in-territory.
Tier 5
Academic primary research
Primary-source academic research from a sovereign's own institutions that materially informs domestic regulatory posture. Included because regulators cite it; not itself a rule.
Filter rows
Showing 11 of 11 rows
Brazil(BR)
Tier 2 — Executive-regulatory categorical ban
Pending direct verification
Anatel (acting on SPA ofício) · Ministério da Fazenda — Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas (issuing authority)
27-platform domain block via ISP-level DNS/IP blocking inside Brazil; parallel mechanism to CMN 5.298.
Global crackdown — multi-jurisdiction LATAM enforcement cycle
Brazil's CMN Resolução 5.298 + Anatel ISP-block recasts foreign-sovereign categorical actions as a multi-jurisdiction pattern rather than country-specific events. Bloomberg's 04-24 synthesis is the first Tier-1 elite-press framing of LATAM enforcement as a coordinated regulatory cycle (Argentina Mar 17 → Colombia → Brazil Apr 24), arriving inside the 24h window before Polymarket's V2 cutover and 7d before CMN 5.298 effective date (May 4). Framing is Bloomberg's, attributed — not adopted in PM.US voice.
We block 30 domains (including CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block, Cointelegraph, Bitcoin.com, Cryptoast, JournalDuCoin, and every geo-unlock / affiliate-farm domain on our banned-citations list) from serving as primary citations on this tracker. Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, FT, and WSJ are acceptable as corroborating secondaries when they publish.
Audit cadence
weekly; same-day if any sovereign files a new action, or if any existing row's primary source silently revises
Last verified 2026-04-27 · Next audit due 2026-05-04 · Verify-on-every-session: yes
