Public comment deadline: Monday, July 27, 2026
Comment Deadline
July 27, 2026
RIN
3038-AF65
Fed. Reg.
91 FR 35806
ANPRM Comments
3,500
The key takeaway from this page
Comment deadline: Monday, July 27, 2026
Comments must be received by July 27, 2026 — not just postmarked. Use electronic submission via Regulations.gov to avoid mail delays.
On June 10, 2026, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking titled “Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations” (RIN 3038-AF65). It was published in the Federal Register on June 12, 2026 at 91 FR 35806.
The proposal would amend CFTC Regulation 40.11 — the “Special Rule” that authorizes the Commission to review and, where appropriate, prohibit event contracts on CFTC-registered exchanges if those contracts involve certain activities: gaming, terrorism, assassination, war, or unlawful activity. The NPRM replaces the current ad-hoc review process with a structured three-step framework and adds Appendix F to Part 40.
This is the most consequential federal regulatory action for U.S. prediction markets since Kalshi won the right to list political event contracts. The final rule will set the criteria that determine which markets can legally operate and which contracts face prohibition risk.
Assess whether the agreements, contracts, transactions, or swaps qualify as event contracts (based upon an occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency).
Determine whether the event contracts involve an activity enumerated in the Special Rule (gaming, terrorism, assassination, war, or unlawful activity) or similar activity.
If they involve such activity, undertake a public interest analysis and determine whether the event contract is affirmatively against the public interest.
Source: Federal Register, 91 FR 35806
The CFTC must initiate any review within 10 days of a contract's listing and complete it within 90 days. If no prohibition order issues, the contract is deemed approved. Broad sports-outcome contracts (final scores, point differentials, tournament advancement) are expected to clear the framework. Contracts settling on individual player actions, referee decisions, or national security events face greater scrutiny.
The CFTC received approximately 3,500 comments on the March 2026 ANPRM, including around 300 detailed substantive submissions. The agency cited public comment themes extensively in the NPRM text. Under the Administrative Procedure Act, the CFTC must consider and respond to significant comments in the final rule — a focused, evidence-based comment can shift the outcome.
Who should comment
High-impact comment types
Lower-impact comment types
The CFTC explicitly asks for comment on each of these areas. Pick the one or two where you have genuine perspective or data.
Definition of 'gaming'
The NPRM proposes two alternative definitions of 'gaming.' Option A focuses on licensed gambling activity under state law. Option B is broader, covering wagering on outcomes generally. The definition is critical: under Option B, most sports prediction market contracts could face CFTC review.
The 'involves' standard
A contract 'involves' an enumerated activity if its settlement is determined by that activity's occurrence. The CFTC's settlement-based definition is narrower than a subject-based one — but courts have disagreed about where the line falls. Comment if you think the proposed standard is drawn incorrectly.
Public interest factors
The NPRM lists positive factors (price discovery, hedging, economic utility) and negative factors (manipulation risk, insider information, harm to public confidence). Comment if a factor is weighted incorrectly or if an important consideration is missing.
The 90-day review process
Once the CFTC initiates review, it has 90 days to issue a prohibition order. If no order issues, the contract is deemed approved. Comment if this timeline creates operational uncertainty or is insufficient for proper review.
Alternatives to individualized review
The CFTC asks whether class-based or safe-harbor approaches could replace per-contract review. If you have a concrete proposal for how this could work in practice, now is the time to put it on the record.
Read the proposal
Download the full NPRM from the Federal Register. Focus on Section III (proposed regulatory text) and Section IV (cost-benefit analysis). Most commenters only need the relevant subsections, not all 65+ pages.
Open Federal RegisterIdentify your angle
The CFTC explicitly asks for feedback on: the 'involves' standard, the definition of 'gaming,' the public interest factors, the 90-day review process, alternatives to individualized review, and costs and benefits. Pick one or two issues where you have genuine perspective. A focused 2-page comment on a single issue is more influential than a vague 10-page overview.
Draft your comment
Use plain language. Start with who you are and why you have standing (trader, researcher, platform operator, state legislator, tribal official, sports organization). State your position up front. Use the structure: Position → Supporting evidence → Specific recommendation. Personal data points ('I've executed 800+ contracts over 18 months') carry more weight than generic statements.
Submit via Regulations.gov or CFTC Comments Portal
Electronic submission is strongly preferred to avoid mail delays. Use Regulations.gov (direct link below) or the CFTC Comments Portal at comments.cftc.gov. All submissions become public record. Do not include personal identifying information you don't want published.
Submit via Regulations.govConfirm your deadline: July 27, 2026
Comments must be received — not just submitted — by July 27, 2026. Electronic submission is safest. Late comments may still be accepted at the CFTC's discretion, but only timely comments are guaranteed consideration in the final rule.
You don't need a formal legal brief. A well-organized 1-3 page comment is often more effective than a lengthy unfocused submission.
Suggested structure
1. Introduction (1 paragraph)
Who you are, what you do in prediction markets, and why you're submitting. Example: 'I am a retail trader who has executed over 800 event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket since 2023. I submit this comment regarding the proposed definition of gaming in Section III.B.'
2. Position statement (1-2 sentences)
State your position clearly and early. Example: 'I support Option A of the proposed gaming definition because...' or 'I oppose the proposed 10-day review initiation window because...'
3. Evidence or argument (1-2 paragraphs)
Specific support for your position. Data points, personal experience, market structure observations, or legal arguments. Be concrete — 'I have executed 847 contracts over 18 months' is more useful than 'prediction markets benefit consumers.'
4. Specific recommendation (1 paragraph)
What the CFTC should do differently, if anything. Propose specific alternative text or criteria. The more precise, the better: 'The Commission should define gaming as...' rather than 'The definition should be clearer.'
5. Subject line / docket reference
Include in your subject: 'Re: Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations, RIN 3038-AF65.' This ensures your comment is filed to the correct docket.
CFTC Comments Portal
The CFTC's own system. Select 'Submit Comments' for this NPRM release.
comments.cftc.govChristopher Kirkpatrick, Secretary of the Commission, CFTC, Three Lafayette Centre, 1155 21st Street NW, Washington, DC 20581. Allow delivery time.
Understanding the timeline helps you comment more effectively — the CFTC frequently references prior actions when responding to public submissions.
CFTC issues Staff Advisory to DCMs on event contract listing standards and ANPRM (RIN 3038-AF65) seeking public input.
ANPRM comment deadline. CFTC receives approximately 3,500 comments, ~300 substantive submissions.
Chairman Michael Selig publishes NPRM: "Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations." Structured three-step framework replaces ad-hoc review.
NPRM published in Federal Register (91 FR 35806). Comment period opens.
Comment deadline. Your window to shape the final rule.
Effective date of any adopted amendments to Rule 40.11.
Why this rulemaking is happening now
The NPRM arrives during an unusually active regulatory moment. The CFTC issued an emergency order in July 2026 directing Kalshi to honor trades during Michigan's state court action — a dual-authority conflict with no clear precedent. Congressional action on the CLARITY Act and House Agriculture Committee hearings are running in parallel. The NPRM is the CFTC's attempt to establish a durable federal framework before courts or Congress set the terms instead. Comments addressing federal preemption implications may carry particular weight in this cycle.
Regulatory Tracker
Live timeline of CFTC actions, state AG suits, and federal court rulings.
Why Are Some Contracts Banned?
How the CEA Special Rule currently works and which contract types face the greatest risk.
CFTC & Michigan Standoff
The dual-authority conflict that underscores why a clear federal framework matters now.
House Agriculture Hearing (Jul 21)
Congress examines customer protections and market integrity in sports prediction markets.
File online at Regulations.gov — takes under 10 minutes. Reference “Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations” and RIN 3038-AF65.
Submit Your Comment8 common questions answered
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