Geopolitics

    Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

    Before Jan 1, 2027 leads by 7 pts · 2 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jan 1, 2027#114%
    2. Before Dec 1, 2026#27%
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $220.5K
    24h
    $276
    Liquidity
    $14.9K
    Candidates
    2
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 3 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jan 1, 202714%
    • Before Dec 1, 20267%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

    Deposit $10, get $25

    Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

    Claim offer 1 / 5

    Sponsored · We may earn a commission · 18+ · Trade responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER

    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Before Dec 1, 202624h
      ▼ 16¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Jan 1, 202724h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    3. Before Jan 1, 202724h
      4¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jan 1, 2027$210.7K vol · 4¢ apart14%▼ 7kalshi19¢21¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$5.6K vol7%▼ 16kalshi11¢12¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Jan 1, 20274¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

    Loading trades…

    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Donald Trump and Flávio Bolsonaro meet in person after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

    More in Geopolitics

    All Geopolitics