Will the Clarity Act become law?

Before Jan 1, 2028 leads by 2 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

Before Jan 1, 2028#119%▼ 2Yes20¢22¢ after fees
Before Oct 1, 2027#217%▼ 2Yes19¢21¢ after fees
Before Jul 1, 2027#312%▼ 2Yes13¢14¢ after fees

#4 Before Apr 1, 202710%#5 Before Jan 1, 20273%+1 more

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
Volume: $4.3M
24h: $1.5K
Candidates: 6

2 venues · 7 markets

Who’s winning

Top 5, each at its busiest venue

Before Jan 1, 202819%
Before Oct 1, 202717%
Before Jul 1, 202712%
Before Apr 1, 202710%
Before Jan 1, 20273%

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Signals

4 signals

Before Jul 1, 202724h
10¢ apart across venues
Before Jan 1, 202824h
8¢ apart across venues
Before Apr 1, 202724h
7¢ apart across venues
Before Oct 1, 202724h
6¢ apart across venues

Every candidate, every venue

2 venues

Chance

Best

Before Jan 1, 2028$145.5K vol · 8¢ apart19%▼ 220¢28¢

20¢22¢ after fees

Before Oct 1, 2027$170.6K vol · 6¢ apart17%▼ 219¢25¢

19¢21¢ after fees

Before Jul 1, 2027$99.8K vol · 10¢ apart12%▼ 213¢23¢

13¢14¢ after fees

Before Apr 1, 2027$109.4K vol · 7¢ apart10%▼ 110¢17¢

10¢11¢ after fees

Before Jan 1, 2027$2.5M vol3%—4¢6¢

4¢5¢ after fees

Before Dec 1, 2026$521.6K vol1%—1¢–

1¢2¢ after fees

Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

Where venues disagree

Yes price

Before Jul 1, 202710¢buy
Before Jan 1, 20288¢buy
Before Apr 1, 20277¢buy
Before Oct 1, 20276¢buy
Before Jan 1, 20272¢buy

Kalshi
Crypto.com
Consensus

Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

Smart money

Biggest trades

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In the news

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.