US Election

    Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?

    Before Oct 1, 2027 leads by 6 pts · 9 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Oct 1, 2027#182%
    2. Before Jun 1, 2027#276%
    3. Before Jul 1, 2027#376%
    #4 Before May 1, 202773%#5 Before Apr 1, 202771%+5 more
    Resolves
    Oct 1, 2027
    Volume
    $88.9K
    24h
    $680
    Liquidity
    $18.1K
    Candidates
    10
    kalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US3 venues · 10 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Oct 1, 202782%
    • Before Jun 1, 202776%
    • Before Jul 1, 202776%
    • Before May 1, 202773%
    • Before Apr 1, 202771%
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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      ▲ 4¢ in 24hPolymarket USkalshi
    2. Before Dec 1, 202624h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24h
    3. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      24¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USkalshi
    4. Before Jul 1, 202724h
      23¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    3 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Oct 1, 2027$1.6K vol82%—kalshi86¢87¢ after fees
    Before Jun 1, 2027$0 vol76%▲ 1kalshi80¢82¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2027$540 vol · 23¢ apart76%▼ 1Polymarket US54¢fee unknown
    Before May 1, 2027$0 vol73%▲ 1kalshi77¢79¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$3.3K vol · 24¢ apart71%▲ 4Polymarket US50¢fee unknown
    Before Mar 1, 2027$4.4K vol56%▲ 1kalshi57¢59¢ after fees
    Before Feb 1, 2027$522 vol25%▼ 1kalshi28¢30¢ after fees
    December 31, 2026$71.3K vol12%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢12¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$7.1K vol9%▼ 1kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$187 vol4%▼ 4kalshi8¢9¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket US
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    Gavin Newsom Announces a Presidential Run?

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, October 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 3 venues

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