Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?

Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...? — March 31, 2027

71% chance · up 4 pts today

Yes71%▲ 4

Buy Yes50¢fee unknown

No29%▼ 4

Buy No32¢34¢ after fees

Resolves: Mar 31, 2027
Volume: $3.3K
24h: $214
Liquidity: $670

Listed on 3 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

2 signals

Yes24h
▲ 4¢ in 24h
Yes24h
24¢ apart across venues

Every venue’s price

3 venues

Chance

Best

Yes71%▲ 474¢84¢50¢

50¢fee unknown

No29%▼ 432¢81¢51¢

32¢34¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarket USat 50¢: Fees unavailable

Kalshiat 74¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Gavin Newsom has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Apr 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whethe…

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Polymarket US

Gavin Newsom Announces a Presidential Run?

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About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Gavin Newsom announce Presidential run by...?
Resolves: Wed, March 31, 2027