Scotus & Courts

    Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

    Before Jan 1, 2028 leads by 11 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jan 1, 2028#119%
    2. Before Jul 1, 2027#28%
    3. Before Jan 1, 2027#35%
    Resolves
    Jun 30, 2027
    Volume
    $105.6K
    24h
    $54
    Liquidity
    $16.1K
    Candidates
    3
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 3 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jan 1, 202819%
    • Before Jul 1, 20278%
    • Before Jan 1, 20275%
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    Signals

    1 signal
    1. Before Jul 1, 202724h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jan 1, 2028$3.8K vol19%▼ 2kalshi22¢24¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2027$56.0K vol8%▼ 3kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$45.9K vol5%▼ 2kalshi9¢10¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Jul 1, 20273¢buy kalshi
    • Before Jan 1, 20273¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Wed, June 30, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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