Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...? — June 30, 2027

8% chance · down 3 pts today

Yes8%▼ 3

Buy Yes9¢10¢ after fees

No92%▲ 3

Buy No94¢95¢ after fees

Resolves: Jun 30, 2027
Volume: $56.0K
24h: $0
Liquidity: $3.5K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

1 signal

Yes24h
▼ 3¢ in 24h

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes8%▼ 39¢12¢

9¢10¢ after fees

No92%▲ 394¢95¢

94¢95¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 9¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Polymarketat 12¢: exit costs ~0.42¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?
Resolves: Wed, June 30, 2027