Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...? — Before Jan 1, 2027

5% chance · down 2 pts today

Yes5%▼ 2

Buy Yes9¢10¢ after fees

No95%▲ 2

Buy No94¢95¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $45.9K
24h: $53
Liquidity: $12.6K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes5%▼ 29¢6¢

9¢10¢ after fees

No95%▲ 294¢96¢

94¢95¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 6¢: exit costs ~0.23¢/contract

Kalshiat 9¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

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How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If Clarence Thomas retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will…

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About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026