Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 2027 leads by 2 pts
- December 31, 2027#1December 31, 20277%▼ 1
- June 30, 2027#2June 30, 20275%▼ 1
- December 31, 2026#3December 31, 20263%▼ 1
- Resolves
- Jan 14, 2028
- Volume
- $419.9K
- 24h
- $233
- Liquidity
- $36.1K
- Candidates
- 3
2 venues · 3 marketsWho’s winning
Top 3, each at its busiest venue- December 31, 20277%
- June 30, 20275%
- December 31, 20263%
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Signals
1 signal- December 31, 202724h28¢ apart across venues
Every candidate, every venue
2 venuesYes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.
Where venues disagree
Yes price- December 31, 202728¢buy
- Polymarket (global)
- Polymarket US
- Consensus
Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.
Smart money
Biggest tradesLoading trades…
In the news
How each venue settles it
Polymarket (global)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Category
- Politics
- Resolves
- Fri, January 14, 2028
Compared across 2 venues