Will any country leave NATO by...? — By December 31, 2026

3% chance · down 1 pts today

Yes3%▼ 1

Buy Yes4¢fee unknown

No97%▲ 1

Buy No97¢fee unknown

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $413.7K
24h: $0
Liquidity: $25.1K

Listed on 2 venues

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes3%▼ 14¢4¢

4¢fee unknown

No97%▲ 198¢97¢

97¢fee unknown

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 4¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

Polymarket USat 4¢: Fees unavailable

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

Polymarket US

Any Country Withdraws From NATO?

Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will any country leave NATO by...?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026