Geopolitics

    Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

    Anthony Albanese leads by 18 pts · 6 candidates at 5%+

    1. Anthony Albanese#140%
    2. Pauline Hanson#222%
    3. Angus Taylor#318%
    #4 Andrew Hastie6%#5 Jane Hume6%+4 more
    Resolves
    Sep 23, 2029
    Volume
    $38.7K
    24h
    $1
    Liquidity
    $53.0K
    Candidates
    9
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 9 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Anthony Albanese40%
    • Pauline Hanson22%
    • Angus Taylor18%
    • Andrew Hastie6%
    • Jane Hume6%
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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Angus Taylor24h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Richard Marles24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Jim Chalmers24h
      8¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Anthony Albanese$6.4K vol40%—kalshi40¢42¢ after fees
    Pauline Hanson$26.9K vol22%▼ 1kalshi26¢28¢ after fees
    Angus Taylor$3.0K vol18%▼ 5kalshi23¢25¢ after fees
    Andrew Hastie$6 vol6%▼ 2kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Jane Hume$76 vol6%▼ 2kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Richard Marles$57 vol5%▼ 3kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Jim Chalmers$1.1K vol · 8¢ apart4%▼ 2kalshi2¢3¢ after fees
    Robbie Katter$391 vol1%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2¢2¢ after fees
    Larissa Waters$682 vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Anthony Albanese becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolutio…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, September 23, 2029
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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