Geopolitics

    Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

    AfD leads by 45 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. AfD#160%
    2. CDU#215%
    3. SPD#313%
    #4 BSW12%#5 Greens11%+3 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $82.9K
    24h
    $11
    Liquidity
    $49.0K
    Candidates
    8
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 8 markets

    Who’s winning

    • AfD60%
    • CDU15%
    • SPD13%
    • BSW12%
    • Greens11%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. AfD24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. CDU24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    3. Greens24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. BSW24h
      10¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    5. SPD24h
      6¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    AfD$23.3K vol60%▼ 4kalshi63¢65¢ after fees
    CDU$8.8K vol15%▼ 4kalshi18¢20¢ after fees
    SPD$18.0K vol · 6¢ apart13%▲ 2kalshi19¢21¢ after fees
    BSW$9.6K vol · 10¢ apart12%▼ 3kalshi19¢21¢ after fees
    Greens$1.1K vol11%▼ 4kalshi14¢15¢ after fees
    Grüne$5.2K vol5%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢7¢ after fees
    Die Linke$14.0K vol · 5¢ apart5%▼ 3kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    FDP$2.8K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If a coalition that includes AfD make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state governm…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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