Trump

    Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

    Pete Hegseth leads by 31 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. Pete Hegseth#160%
    2. Nobody#229%
    3. Donald Trump#315%
    #4 None of these7%#5 Howard Lutnick2%+5 more
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2028
    Volume
    $92.4K
    24h
    $16.2K
    Liquidity
    $114.1K
    Candidates
    10
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 10 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Pete Hegseth60%
    • Nobody29%
    • Donald Trump15%
    • None of these7%
    • Howard Lutnick2%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Pete Hegseth24h
      ▼ 10¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    2. Nobody24h
      ▲ 9¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. None of these24h
      ▲ 5¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. Pete Hegseth24h
      16¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    5. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.24h
      6¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Pete Hegseth$40.0K vol · 16¢ apart60%▼ 10kalshi71¢73¢ after fees
    Nobody$22.7K vol29%▲ 9Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US30¢31¢ after fees
    Donald Trump$11.2K vol · 5¢ apart15%▼ 1kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    None of these$2.7K vol7%▲ 5kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    Howard Lutnick$3.0K vol2%▲ 1kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.$2.9K vol · 6¢ apart1%—kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    JD Vance$2.0K vol · 5¢ apart1%—kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Samuel Alito$1.8K vol<1%——
    Todd Blanche$4.0K vol<1%—kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Clarence Thomas$2.1K vol<1%——

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Pete Hegseth is the first of the officials named in this event to be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple li…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, January 1, 2028
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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