Geopolitics

    Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

    China leads by 4 pts · 19 candidates at 5%+

    1. China#113%
    2. South Africa#29%
    3. Brazil#39%
    #4 Mexico9%#5 Russia9%+15 more
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $430.5K
    24h
    $48
    Liquidity
    $143.2K
    Candidates
    20
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi2 venues · 20 markets

    Who’s winning

    • China13%
    • South Africa9%
    • Brazil9%
    • Mexico9%
    • Russia9%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Japan24h
      ▼ 11¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Vietnam24h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. South Africa24h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    China$5.8K vol13%▼ 2kalshi15¢16¢ after fees
    South Africa$936 vol9%▼ 5Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US14¢14¢ after fees
    Brazil$4.9K vol9%▼ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US13¢14¢ after fees
    Mexico$3.6K vol9%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢12¢ after fees
    Russia$2.8K vol9%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢12¢ after fees
    Israel$1.1K vol8%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢12¢ after fees
    Vietnam$12.9K vol8%▼ 7Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US10¢10¢ after fees
    Canada$25.0K vol8%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢9¢ after fees
    Australia$6.5K vol8%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US10¢10¢ after fees
    Japan$18.2K vol7%▼ 11Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US13¢14¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resol…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If a free trade deal with Taiwan has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshiCompared across 2 venues

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