Geopolitics

    Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

    Australia leads by 2 pts · 8 candidates at 5%+

    1. Australia#116%
    2. Germany#214%
    3. US#314%
    #4 UK13%#5 Italy13%+3 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $61.1K
    24h
    $20
    Candidates
    8
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 8 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Australia16%
    • Germany14%
    • US14%
    • UK13%
    • Italy13%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

    Deposit $10, get $25

    Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

    Claim offer 1 / 5

    Sponsored · We may earn a commission · 18+ · Trade responsibly · 1-800-GAMBLER

    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Germany24h
      ▼ 9¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Australia24h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. US24h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Australia$35 vol16%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US24¢no fee
    Germany$50 vol14%▼ 9Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US24¢no fee
    US$29.4K vol14%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US19¢no fee
    UK$628 vol13%▼ 5Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US18¢no fee
    Italy$86 vol13%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US21¢no fee
    Greece$86 vol11%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US19¢no fee
    France$14.3K vol8%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢no fee
    Netherlands$16.5K vol5%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢no fee

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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