Geopolitics

    Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

    Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar leads by 5 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar#113%
    2. Iván Mordisco#28%
    3. Juan Pablo Ledezma#38%
    #4 Juan Reyes Mejía González7%#5 Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez6%+2 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $195.6K
    24h
    $98
    Candidates
    7
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 7 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar13%
    • Iván Mordisco8%
    • Juan Pablo Ledezma8%
    • Juan Reyes Mejía González7%
    • Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez6%
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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar$8.0K vol13%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US15¢no fee
    Iván Mordisco$1.8K vol8%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢no fee
    Juan Pablo Ledezma$3.4K vol8%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢no fee
    Juan Reyes Mejía González$38.9K vol7%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢no fee
    Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez$60.8K vol6%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢no fee
    Ricardo Ruiz Velasco$64.2K vol5%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢no fee
    Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar$13.0K vol5%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢no fee

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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