When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

    When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Live odds across 4 markets: Before 2040 at 60¢. Resolves Jan 1, 2040. Not financial advice.

    Resolves Jan 1, 2040

    TRADING OPEN
    8s

    When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

    Resolves Jan 1, 2040
    Total Volume

    $41.6K

    +$0 (24h)

    Active Markets

    4

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    60¢

    Before 2040

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -2¢

    Before 2040

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    4 markets · Showing 4
    #
    160¢60¢
    $2.1K
    -2¢
    251¢51¢
    $7.3K
    -1¢
    335¢35¢
    $15.2K
    -2¢
    4
    $17.0K
    -2¢

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Before 2040
    60%
    60¢-2¢
    2Before 2035
    51%
    51¢-1¢
    3Before 2030
    35%
    35¢-2¢
    4Before 2027
    -2¢

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Jan 1, 2040

    ~4857 days remaining
    Category
    Culture
    Markets
    4
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $41.6K

    Whale Activity

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