When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? — Before 2030

36% chance

Yes36%

Buy Yes38¢40¢ after fees

No64%

Buy No66¢68¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 31, 2029
Volume: $19.2K
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes36%—38¢

38¢40¢ after fees

No64%—66¢

66¢68¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 38¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Culture
Event: When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
Resolves: Mon, December 31, 2029