International

    Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

    One Nation leads by 33 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. One Nation#156%
    2. Greens#223%
    3. Nationals#314%
    #4 Labor5%#5 Liberal2%+6 more
    Resolves
    Nov 28, 2026
    Volume
    $52.0K
    24h
    $399
    Liquidity
    $55.4K
    Candidates
    11
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 11 markets

    Who’s winning

    • One Nation56%
    • Greens23%
    • Nationals14%
    • Labor5%
    • Liberal2%
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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. One Nation24h
      ▼ 12¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    2. Nationals24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Greens24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    4. Greens24h
      11¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    5. One Nation24h
      8¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    One Nation$16.9K vol · 8¢ apart56%▼ 12kalshi69¢71¢ after fees
    Greens$8.2K vol · 11¢ apart23%▼ 3kalshi18¢20¢ after fees
    Nationals$5.4K vol14%▼ 4kalshi18¢20¢ after fees
    Labor$7.9K vol5%▼ 2kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    Liberal$2.1K vol2%—kalshi2¢3¢ after fees
    Liberal–National$2.2K vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees
    Victorian Socialists$3.6K vol1%—kalshi1¢2¢ after fees
    Libertarian$1.9K vol<1%——
    Animal Justice$1.4K vol<1%——
    Legalise Cannabis$1.7K vol<1%——

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the third-most total seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly are held by One Nation following the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, November 28, 2026
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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