Geopolitics

    US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

    December 31 leads by 14 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. December 31#183%
    2. November 30#269%
    3. November 22#363%
    #4 November 1554%#5 November 832%
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $825.0K
    24h
    $154.8K
    Candidates
    5
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 5 markets

    Who’s winning

    • December 3183%
    • November 3069%
    • November 2263%
    • November 1554%
    • November 832%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

    Deposit $10, get $25

    Trading bonus for new sign-ups.

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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. November 824h
      ▲ 6¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. November 1524h
      ▲ 5¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. November 2224h
      ▲ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    December 31$100.0K vol83%▲ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US83¢no fee
    November 30$119.4K vol69%▲ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US69¢no fee
    November 22$165.4K vol63%▲ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US63¢no fee
    November 15$167.5K vol54%▲ 5Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US54¢no fee
    November 8$272.8K vol32%▲ 6Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US32¢no fee

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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