US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) — November 8

32% chance

Yes32%

Buy Yes32¢no fee

No68%

Buy No69¢no fee

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $272.8K
24h: $59.2K
Liquidity: $34.1K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes32%—32¢

32¢no fee

No69%—69¢

69¢no fee

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 32¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recen…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026