Geopolitics

    U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

    Before 2028 leads by 41 pts · 2 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before 2028#151%
    2. Before 2027#210%
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $48.8K
    24h
    $140
    Liquidity
    $11.1K
    Candidates
    2
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 2 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before 202851%
    • Before 202710%
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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Before 202724h
      ▼ 11¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Before 202824h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Before 202724h
      11¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before 2028$408 vol51%▼ 4kalshi55¢57¢ after fees
    Before 2027$48.4K vol · 11¢ apart10%▼ 11kalshi9¢10¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the United States announces the opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Syria after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confi…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    The United States has suspended operations of the Embassy in Damascus since February 6, 2012. As of market creation, the Government of the Czech Republic serves as the protecting power for U.S. interests in Syria and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening of its embassy in Damascus or if such a reopening is otherwise confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy in Damascus will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S. and Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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