Trump

    Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

    Before Jan 1, 2027 leads by 29 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jan 1, 2027#192%
    2. Before Dec 1, 2026#263%
    3. November 15#38%
    #4 Before Nov 15, 20266%
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $115.2K
    24h
    $1.2K
    Liquidity
    $25.2K
    Candidates
    4
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 4 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jan 1, 202792%
    • Before Dec 1, 202663%
    • November 158%
    • Before Nov 15, 20266%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Before Nov 15, 202624h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Dec 1, 202624h
      ▲ 3¢ in 24hkalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. Before Dec 1, 202624h
      14¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    4. Before Jan 1, 202724h
      11¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jan 1, 2027$43.8K vol · 11¢ apart92%▲ 2kalshi81¢83¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$25.6K vol · 14¢ apart63%▲ 3kalshi51¢53¢ after fees
    November 15$45.7K vol8%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US8¢no fee
    Before Nov 15, 2026$109 vol6%▼ 4kalshi9¢10¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Dec 1, 202614¢buy kalshi
    • Before Jan 1, 202711¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the federal government has released, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, previously unreleased documents, audio files, or video files regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (“UAP”), then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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