International

    Swiss Federal Council By-Election Winner

    Thomas Aeschi leads by 3 pts · 5 candidates at 5%+

    1. Thomas Aeschi#120%
    2. Pierre-Alain Schnegg#217%
    3. Marco Chiesa#314%
    #4 Jean-Pierre Gallati10%#5 Michael Graber8%+1 more
    Resolves
    Dec 9, 2026
    Volume
    $5.7K
    24h
    $539
    Liquidity
    $4.1K
    Candidates
    6
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi2 venues · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Thomas Aeschi20%
    • Pierre-Alain Schnegg17%
    • Marco Chiesa14%
    • Jean-Pierre Gallati10%
    • Michael Graber8%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Jean-Pierre Gallati24h
      ▼ 41¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Marco Chiesa24h
      ▼ 19¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. Pierre-Alain Schnegg24h
      ▼ 10¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    4. Thomas Aeschi24h
      11¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Thomas Aeschi$2.0K vol · 11¢ apart20%▼ 4kalshi33¢35¢ after fees
    Pierre-Alain Schnegg$2.0K vol17%▼ 10kalshi21¢23¢ after fees
    Marco Chiesa$361 vol14%▼ 19Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US18¢19¢ after fees
    Jean-Pierre Gallati$604 vol10%▼ 41Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US15¢16¢ after fees
    Michael Graber$175 vol8%▼ 5Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US13¢13¢ after fees
    Rémy Wyssmann$538 vol1%▼ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2¢2¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Thomas Aeschi11¢buy kalshi
    • Pierre-Alain Schnegg2¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    Switzerland's Federal Assembly is currently scheduled to elect a successor to Federal Councillor Guy Parmelin on December 9, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual elected by the Federal Assembly to succeed Guy Parmelin as a member of the Swiss Federal Council by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An individual will be considered elected once the Federal Assembly officially declares them elected. Whether t…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If Thomas Aeschi wins the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    Switzerland's Federal Assembly is currently scheduled to elect a successor to Federal Councillor Guy Parmelin on December 9, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual elected by the Federal Assembly to succeed Guy Parmelin as a member of the Swiss Federal Council by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An individual will be considered elected once the Federal Assembly officially declares them elected. Whether the elected individual accepts the election, is sworn in, or assumes office will not affect the resolution of this market. If no such individual is elected by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Switzerland and the Swiss Federal Assembly; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Wed, December 9, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshiCompared across 2 venues

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